美联储6月会议解读：美联储降息时间点渐行渐近

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive pause in rate hikes[1] - The Fed lowered the 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1% to 2% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.8%[1] - The median expectation for the policy rate in 2026 remains at 3%-3.25%[1] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Market Reactions - The Fed's dot plot indicates a reduction in expected rate cuts from three to one for 2024, with the median policy rate rising from 4.6% to 5.1%[5] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 272,000, exceeding the market expectation of 190,000[12] - The May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.4%, indicating a cooling inflation trend[14] Group 3: Asset Price Movements - Following the Fed's meeting, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.09% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.85%[11] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to approximately 4.32%, down about 8 basis points after the CPI release[11] - Gold prices initially surged over 1% but later retraced gains, indicating cautious market sentiment[11] Group 4: Future Economic and Policy Outlook - The Fed faces a balancing act between strong labor market data and persistent inflation, with risks of both premature rate cuts and delayed action[18] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 60%, with December showing a 28% chance for one cut and a 44% chance for two cuts[18] - The outlook for major asset classes includes a potential decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields below 4% if rate cuts materialize as expected[22]