ZHIHU-知乎：Transition year with efficiency improvement

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US $7 9 [2][4] Core Views - Zhihu delivered better-than-feared 1Q24 results with revenue down 3 4% YoY but 4% above consensus and adjusted net loss of RMB136mn vs consensus of RMB180mn [2] - Vocational training revenue was resilient at +36% YoY in 1Q24 while membership revenue decelerated to +1% YoY [2] - The company is prioritizing higher efficiency and aims for quarterly breakeven in 4Q24E with expected short-term volatility in user metrics and revenue [2] - Revenue forecast for FY24-26E was trimmed by 6 4%-7 0% and adjusted NPM was cut by 0 9-3 9ppts [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue was RMB961mn down 3 4% YoY with gross margin at 56 6% [8] - Adjusted net loss narrowed to RMB136mn in 1Q24 with adjusted NPM at -14% vs consensus of -19% [2] - Revenue breakdown for 1Q24 shows marketing services at RMB331mn (-16% YoY) paid membership at RMB450mn (-1% YoY) and vocational training at RMB145mn (+36% YoY) [9] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue is forecasted at RMB3 532mn a 15 9% YoY decline with FY25E and FY26E revenue expected to grow 8 3% and 6 9% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB347 7mn in FY24E to a profit of RMB59 0mn in FY25E and RMB125 7mn in FY26E [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 55 0% in FY24E to 56 1% in FY26E [14] Valuation and Share Performance - DCF-based target price adjusted to US$ 7 9 with an upside potential of 148 7% from the current price of US$3 18 [4] - Share performance shows a 1-month decline of 18 0% and a 6-month decline of 43 5% [5] Business Segments - Marketing services revenue is expected to decline 25% YoY in 2Q24E while paid membership revenue is forecasted to decline 4% YoY [2] - Vocational training revenue is expected to decline 7% YoY in 2Q24E as the company focuses on high-quality development and shrinks low-margin subjects [2] Efficiency and Cost Management - Group gross margin is expected to improve by 2 5ppts YoY in 2Q24E driven by disciplined expenses and operational efficiency [2] - Operating expenses are forecasted to decline with a focus on cost control and higher efficiency [2]