首席周观点：2024年第24周

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The non-farm employment situation remains stable in the short term, with job tightness returning to pre-pandemic levels. The ratio of job vacancies to total non-farm employment has decreased from a post-pandemic high of 103.77% to 100.93%, close to the pre-pandemic high of 100.91% in November 2018 [2][3] - The current policy interest rate is not far from the neutral rate, limiting the number of potential preventive rate cuts. The expectation is that if inflation continues to decline, there may be a slight chance of rate cuts this year [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.65% and 4.85%, with a low likelihood of returning to the long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022 [4] Group 2: Hydrogen Energy Industry - The hydrogen energy sector is positioned for significant growth, driven by global decarbonization efforts. Hydrogen can facilitate deep decarbonization in major carbon-emitting sectors such as energy, transportation, and industry [9][10] - The demand for hydrogen is expected to expand beyond traditional sectors, with significant growth anticipated in transportation, energy storage, and metallurgy. By 2030, the share of electrolysis in hydrogen production is projected to rise to 33% [10][11] - Investment opportunities in the hydrogen sector are highlighted, particularly in fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market demand. Key players include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton Motor [13] Group 3: Carbon Fiber Market - The trend towards lightweight consumer electronics is expected to boost the demand for carbon fiber composites, particularly in foldable smartphones and XR (VR/MR/AR) devices. The foldable smartphone market is projected to reach 60 million units by 2026, driving carbon fiber demand [14][15] - The robotics market is also anticipated to grow, further increasing the demand for carbon fiber composites due to their lightweight and efficiency-enhancing properties [15] Group 4: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Positive policy effects are expected to gradually manifest in the non-banking financial sector, with a more favorable outlook for the capital markets and real estate sectors. The combination of domestic fiscal and monetary policy support is likely to enhance investor risk appetite [19][20] - The long-term trends affecting brokerage valuations include the degree of market-oriented reforms, the pace of wealth management transformation, and the competitive landscape [20] Group 5: Construction and Building Materials - The external environment is aligning with expectations, with U.S. inflation remaining stable and high interest rates likely to persist. This could impact global economic growth rates [33][34] - Domestic demand is still constrained by the real estate sector, necessitating policy improvements to stimulate internal demand and stabilize asset prices [34] Group 6: Laser Processing Industry - The company is a leading player in the laser processing control systems market, with a significant market share and strong R&D capabilities. The growth in new applications and technologies is expected to enhance the company's competitive position [24][25] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and product offerings, which aligns with the growing demand for high-precision laser processing technologies [29]