“美”周市场复盘（6月第3周）：新共识正在形成

Market Performance - The market continued to experience a volume contraction, with small-cap stocks stabilizing ahead of the overall market[2] - The ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and CSI 500 outperformed, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 lagged behind[2] - A total of 28 companies had a combined market value of CNY 106.6 billion unlocked on June 11, creating some market pressure[2] Sector Analysis - The communication, electronics, and computer sectors led the market with gains of 6%, 4.7%, and 3.7% respectively, driven by tech stock performance and external market catalysts[4] - The TMT sector showed signs of stabilization after previous declines, with significant interest in AI and semiconductor stocks[4][32] - The transportation sector underperformed, primarily due to expectations of falling shipping rates following the easing of the Red Sea crisis[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising dollar index led to a net outflow of CNY 12.8 billion from northbound funds this week[2] - China's May PPI turned positive month-on-month, indicating a recovery in industrial prices, while CPI remained stable, reflecting consumer market resilience[16] - The market's risk appetite was indirectly influenced by strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, which reinforced the Fed's position on maintaining interest rates[16] Future Outlook - Upcoming key economic indicators include China's fixed asset investment and retail sales growth on June 17, and the LPR pricing on June 20[12] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for a rate cut by the Fed in September, with current expectations showing a probability of 85.5% for no change and 14.5% for a 25 basis point cut[40]