2024年5月金融数据解读：财政仍待有效投放

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2024, the new social financing scale returned to positive growth, increasing by over 500 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by the rise in net financing from government bonds[2] - The new credit in May decreased by 410 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate medium and long-term loans and bill financing being the main contributors[2] - The M1 and M2 growth rates both declined in May, with M1 experiencing a significant drop of 4.2%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[3] Group 2: Economic Recovery and Policy Impact - The effective financing demand remains weak, reflecting a noticeable gap in economic recovery, with consumer spending and housing purchase intentions not showing significant improvement[2] - The policy emphasis on "preventing fund idling" and "balanced credit allocation" has led to a slowdown in credit issuance[2] - The government bond issuance accelerated in May, with net financing from government bonds turning positive at 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 668.2 billion yuan year-on-year[9] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The risk factors include potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations[4] - The real estate policy introduced in mid-May has yet to show significant effects, with current housing transactions remaining low[21] - The ongoing trend of deposit "disintermediation" continues to impact the overall credit structure, with M2 growth declining due to short-term fiscal fund accumulation[30]