CMES(601872) Guolian Securities·2024-06-16 07:01Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 10.78 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company is creating a dual capital operation platform through the spin-off of its subsidiaries, which is expected to enhance synergy and operational efficiency [2]. - The oil and dry bulk shipping sectors are anticipated to benefit from a favorable supply-demand dynamic in 2024-2025, with significant increases in imports of crude oil, iron ore, and coal [3]. - The establishment of a liner operation platform aims to leverage synergies between container and roll-on/roll-off shipping, enhancing competitive advantages [4]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.69 billion, 30.89 billion, and 32.08 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 4.0%, and 3.9% respectively, with a 3-year CAGR of 7.4% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.02 billion, 8.41 billion, and 8.21 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 65.8%, 4.8%, and -2.3%, respectively, indicating a 3-year CAGR of 19.3% [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.98, 1.03, and 1.01 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.6, 9.2, and 9.4 [5][6]. Operational Insights - The company’s oil tanker and dry bulk segments reported net profits of 870 million and 357 million CNY in Q1 2024, showing year-on-year increases of 13.9% and 275.8% respectively, confirming the profit elasticity during the upcycle [3]. - The container and roll-on/roll-off segments achieved net profits of 100 million and 80 million CNY in Q1 2024, with year-on-year changes of -51.9% and +116.2% respectively, indicating a mixed performance influenced by market conditions [4].