中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：“科特估”：产业逻辑与资金驱动

Group 1: Strategy Insights - The report emphasizes the shift from cooperation to competition in the context of globalization, particularly between China and the US, highlighting the rise of protectionism since 2018 and the strategic importance of domestic substitution in technology [3] - It discusses the concept of "new productive forces" that may drive a new wave of technological breakthroughs, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) playing a crucial role in funding and innovation in disruptive and frontier technologies [3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in risk appetite for technology stocks due to reform expectations leading up to the Third Plenary Session, with government policies expected to boost market sentiment [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is projected to experience a market expansion driven by government support and increasing demand, with the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund expected to enhance market sentiment [3] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, with substantial revenue and profit growth since Q4 of the previous year, indicating a favorable investment environment [3] - It highlights that the overall valuation of the semiconductor sector is currently low, suggesting potential for capital inflow and valuation recovery in the future [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Air Suspension - The air suspension market is identified as a high-value segment with low penetration, expected to reach approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.66% from 2023 to 2028 [6] - The report outlines key drivers for growth in the air suspension market, including consumer demand for enhanced comfort, cost reductions through domestic production, and technological advancements in chassis integration [6] - It identifies local leaders in the air suspension market that have gained significant market share, emphasizing the competitive landscape and barriers to entry in the industry [6] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - The report indicates that in May, social financing increased by 2.07 trillion yuan, surpassing market expectations, with government and corporate bonds being the main contributors to this growth [9] - It highlights a decline in new loans, particularly in the residential and corporate sectors, reflecting weak financing demand amid ongoing economic challenges [9] - The report suggests that the banking sector remains a stable investment option, with a focus on state-owned banks and those with strong fundamentals, particularly in the context of economic recovery [9]