Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on US equities, lifting the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5600 and EPS estimate to $250, with a further target of 5800 for 2025 based on $270 of EPS [6][8]. Core Insights - The earnings momentum remains positive, with a beats-to-misses ratio of 4.6:1, indicating strong performance relative to expectations [5][6]. - The Levkovich Index shows a significant week-over-week decline, indicating a shift towards a more balanced sentiment, although it remains in the euphoria zone [5][25]. - The report highlights the influence of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, which have contributed to two-thirds of the S&P 500 gains this year [6]. Market Outlook - Price remains negative due to flat equity markets and a slight increase in 10-year yields, leading to cross-asset valuation imbalances [4]. - Liquidity is positive, with continued inflows into domestic equity funds and ETFs [4]. - Sentiment is negative, but there is potential for a neutral reading in the coming weeks if current conditions persist [5][6]. Sector Recommendations - Real Estate and Financials have been upgraded to Overweight, joining Consumer Discretionary, while Industrials have been lowered to Market Weight [7]. - Health Care and Materials remain Underweight, indicating a cautious stance on these sectors [7]. Earnings Performance - Over 90% of the S&P 500 has reported Q2 earnings, with aggregate EPS surprising to the upside by 2% compared to expectations [5][33]. - The report details sector-specific performance, with notable earnings growth in Consumer Discretionary and Financials [33][34]. Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.4, which is in the 89th percentile historically, indicating high valuations [14]. - Forward 1-year returns based on current valuation metrics suggest a median return of 6.6% for the S&P 500 [14]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that corporate preparedness for an economic slowdown and improvements in supply chains could positively impact market performance [18]. - The potential for downside surprise inflation prints without weaker macro data is highlighted as a positive market influence [18].

Prepared for Philip Hu 09 Aug 2024 13:25:01 ET │ 18 pages Japan Equity Strategy Investment strategy with Japan equities returning to an upward trajectory CITI'S TAKE We expect Japan equities to embark on a real recovery in the second half of September after the current period of instability. The themes we highlight for investment strategy in this scenario are 1) recently devalued high-quality names with strong earnings, 2) the decoupling of Japan-US long rates, and 3) elevated visibility on a recovery in do ...

Roundup | Prepared for Philip Hu The SMID Point Friday, 09 August 2024 Company | Industry Company Nevro Corp (NVRO.N) - Upgrading to Neutral: Enthusiasm at a Trough, Guidance Seems Reasonable but Uncertainty Is High With the 2Q24 print (link), we are upgrading NVRO to Neutral from Sell. While the quarter itself was fairly benign, the full-year revenue guidance cut to $400- $405M from $435-$445M was unexpected, sending shares down 44% post print. With shares now down 73% YTD and trading at <0.5x NTM revenue, ...

Prepared for Philip Hu Citi Research August 9th, 2024 Citi Research Macro Think Tank Citi Global Research citiinvestmentresearch@citi.com +44-20-7500-1400 See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe Firm may have a conflict ofinterestthat could affectthe ...

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu 09 Aug 2024 18:41:43 ET │ 12 pages Chile Equity Strategy Funds Flows Insights - July CITI'S TAKE It was a positive month for local stocks in terms of flows coming from Chilean Institutional Investors. Pension Funds and Mutual Funds were net buyers of local equity for US$65.3mn and US$34.4mn, respectively, during July. Sectors such as: i) Real Estate, ii) Consumer Discretionary, and iii) Materials were the most preferred by the Pension Fund system, with names like B ...

Equity Research Equity Strategy 9 August 2024 CORE U.S. Equity Strategy Food for Thought: Sector Selection for Rate Reduction Over 13 rate cutting cycles stretching back to the 1980s, Healthcare and Staples outperformed most consistently over the 6 months following the first cut, likely because most of these coincided with recessions. In the 2 "soft landing" cycles of the mid-90s, cyclical and growth sectors performed better after the first cut. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

12 August 2024 | 1:24PM KST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS): MLCC peers' CY2Q24 results read-across; solid MLCC outlook supporting our positive view In this note, we provide read-across of CY2Q24 results of 4 MLCC peers (Murata, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo, and TDK) to our covered Korean MLCC player, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO). We believe the read-across from the peers' results were generally positive due to: 1) most of the peers guiding MLCC revenue to sequentially grow ...

12 August 2024 | 9:28AM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Jahez International (9526.SE): 1H24: Revenue growth slightly below GSe but new verticals weigh on margins Jahez reported 1H24 results with revenue of SR1.02bn (+22% yoy), 2% below GSe. 1H24 net income came in at SR43mn down 26% yoy, 31% below GSe. There are limited number of consensus estimates. Revenue growth of 22% yoy was driven by 30% increase in total number of orders (to 50.1mn), and higher AOV, which increased to SR61.5 from SR60.4 in 1H23. ...

12 August 2024 | 9:49AM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Parkin Co. (PARKIN.DU): 2Q24 First Take Parkin reported 2Q24 results on August 12th pre-market open. Revenues for 2Q24 came in at AED206mn, +3%/-2% vs. GSe/Eikon consensus, up +12% yoy driven by higher revenues from public parking (+7% yoy), developer parking (+7% yoy), seasonal permits (+15% yoy) and fines (+27% yoy). EBITDA of AED134mn came ahead of our estimates and consensus, reflecting a c.65% margin for the quarter driven by revenue growth a ...

Harbour Energy Analysis - **Investment Rating**: Sell rating maintained for Harbour Energy due to its high exposure to European spot gas prices, negatively impacting its earnings profile in 2025-26E [5] - **Core Thesis**: Harbour Energy offers the lowest cash return to shareholders at 6.9% in 2024/25E compared to the EU E&P sector average of 10.9%/12.7% [2] - **Valuation**: The company trades in line with its peers in the EU E&P sector on 2025E EV/DACF, but better combinations of shareholder return, growth, and valuation are found elsewhere in the sector [3] Copper Industry Update - **Escondida Mine Labor Negotiations**: Sindicato No.1 (2.4k operators) at Escondida, the largest single mine union in Chile, has not agreed to initial terms presented by BHP, with government mediation underway [6] - **Potential Cost Impact**: Negotiating an improvement on the existing contract could cost approximately $110mn in cash bonuses, adding USc8/lb to 2H'24e Escondida unit costs [6] Beverages Industry Trends - **Soft Drinks Performance**: Nielsen Carbonates data for the 4 weeks to 14 July shows flat sales development yoy in Western Europe, with the UK down 10.8%, France -8.6%, and Spain -6.9% [6] - **Promotional Activity**: Promotional activity ramped up across all tracked markets, with Germany showing +1.9% volume growth likely due to the UEFA Eurocup [6] UK Macroeconomic Outlook - **Inflation Forecast**: July inflation is expected to see services inflation decelerate to 5.48%, down from 5.74% in June, with core inflation decelerating to 3.38% [8] - **Labour Market**: The June labour market report is expected to show the 3m average unemployment rate edge up to 4.5%, above the BoE's forecast of 4.4% [8] Global Economics Insights - **Neutral Real Rate (r*)**: The neutral real rate is an important anchor for monetary policy and financial markets, with market-based estimates suggesting high returns from macroeconomic stabilization [8] - **China PBOC Policy**: The PBOC maintained an easing bias in its 2Q monetary policy report, with a forecast for a 25bp RRR cut in 3Q and a 10bp policy rate cut in 4Q [8] FX Market Dynamics - **Yen Carry Trade Unwind**: The CFTC weekly positioning report suggests net shorts amongst non-commercial investors have fallen to just $1bn from a peak net short of nearly $15bn, indicating c.90% of the carry trade unwind is done [8]