Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 26 July 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE next week. In economic data, key releases include the jobs report in the US, inflation and GDP data in Europe as well as PMIs in China. In corporate earnings, the spotlight is on big tech firms. The week ahead is centered around key central bank decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wedne ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | | NSA CPI | MTM | | 1-Feb-24 | 310.33 | | | 1-Mar-24 | 312.33 | 0.65% | | 1-Apr-24 | 313.55 | 0.39% | | 1-May-24 | 314.07 | 0.17% | | 1-Jun-24 | 314.18 | 0.03% | | 1-Jul-24 | 314.62 | 0.14% | | 1-Aug-24 | 314.71 | 0.03% | | 1-Sep-24 | 314.86 | 0.05% | | 1-Oct-24 | 314.70 | -0.05% | | | | | | 1-Nov-24 | 314.32 | -0.12% | | 1-Dec-24 | 314.24 | -0.03% | | 1-Jan-25 | 315.52 | 0.41% | | 1-Feb-25 1-Mar-25 1-Apr-25 | 31 ...

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu CNB minutes, Turkish inflation forecast CITI'S TAKE 09 Aug 2024 06:25:02 ET │ 20 pages It has been an incredible week in global macro. After the recent trigger of Sahm's rule and the unexpected BoJ hike, we believe that this higher volatility may not normalise as fast as some expect, suggesting a potential re-calibration higher in EM risk premium. We are entering a mini regime of rising investing uncertainty, whereby the start of Fed easing almost overlaps with US ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Royal Caribbean Cruises (Nor) Date 25 July 2024 Key Takeaways from Q2'24 Results Royal Caribbean reported Adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion (+32.4% versus $1.17 billion in Q2'23) on revenue of $4.11 billion (+16.7% versus $3.52 billion in Q2'23). We note that Adjusted EBITDA was ahead of consensus expectations (~$1.42 billion). Management noted RCL achieved all three Trifecta goals on a trailing 12- month b ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that overall equity positioning is still well above average despite a recent sharp drop, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the market [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in equity positioning, particularly in mega-cap growth and tech sectors, which has fallen to a two-month low, yet remains elevated compared to historical averages [2][22]. - Earnings growth for Q2 2024 is tracking just above 10%, which leaves room for further adjustments in positioning as growth expectations moderate [2][3]. - Strong inflows into equity funds, totaling approximately $22 billion this week and nearly $200 billion over the past three months, indicate a robust risk appetite among investors [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investor Positioning - Equity positioning has decreased sharply but is still above average, with a z-score of 0.50, placing it in the 74th percentile historically [22]. - Discretionary investor positioning has also declined, reaching a two-month low, while systematic strategies are at their lowest in over four months [22][25]. Sector Positioning - Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech has decreased but remains high relative to earnings growth, indicating potential for further cuts if growth slows [3][27]. - Utilities and consumer staples have seen increased positioning, while sectors like energy and consumer cyclicals have experienced declines [27][45]. Fund Flows - Equity funds have seen inflows of $22.2 billion, with notable contributions from emerging markets and Japan, while energy funds faced record outflows of $3.1 billion [28][29]. - Bond funds also attracted $16.1 billion in inflows, although this was a slowdown from previous weeks [29][50].

Deutsche Bank Research LatAm Macro and Strategy Monthly: Searching for Direction July 2024 Drausio Giacomelli Strategist +1-212-250-7355 Francisco Campos Chief LatAm Economist +1-212-250-9764 Carlos Munoz-Carcamo FX Strategist +1-212-250-2259 JP Schuchter Research Associate +1-212-250-9297 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETA ...

FICC Research Economics 8 August 2024 US CPI Inflation Preview (July 2024 CPI) Core CPI expected to have firmed in July We look for firming in July core CPI inflation to 0.21% m/m SA, from an unusually soft 0.06% reading in June. We expect a payback in shelter inflation and less deflation in core goods to drive this acceleration. For headline CPI, we look for a 0.21% m/m SA increase and expect the NSA index to print at 314.817. • We expect US headline CPI to have risen 0.21% m/m SA in July (from -0.06% in J ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Rates Global Fixed Income Weekly Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Francis Yared Strategist Matthew Raskin Strategist Soniya Sadeesh Strategist Bernd Volk Strategist Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist Ioannis Sokos Strategist Brian Lu Research Associate Gabriele Cozzi Strategist Mingyue Xin Strategist Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on US equities, lifting the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5600 and EPS estimate to $250, with a further target of 5800 for 2025 based on $270 of EPS [6][8]. Core Insights - The earnings momentum remains positive, with a beats-to-misses ratio of 4.6:1, indicating strong performance relative to expectations [5][6]. - The Levkovich Index shows a significant week-over-week decline, indicating a shift towards a more balanced sentiment, although it remains in the euphoria zone [5][25]. - The report highlights the influence of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, which have contributed to two-thirds of the S&P 500 gains this year [6]. Market Outlook - Price remains negative due to flat equity markets and a slight increase in 10-year yields, leading to cross-asset valuation imbalances [4]. - Liquidity is positive, with continued inflows into domestic equity funds and ETFs [4]. - Sentiment is negative, but there is potential for a neutral reading in the coming weeks if current conditions persist [5][6]. Sector Recommendations - Real Estate and Financials have been upgraded to Overweight, joining Consumer Discretionary, while Industrials have been lowered to Market Weight [7]. - Health Care and Materials remain Underweight, indicating a cautious stance on these sectors [7]. Earnings Performance - Over 90% of the S&P 500 has reported Q2 earnings, with aggregate EPS surprising to the upside by 2% compared to expectations [5][33]. - The report details sector-specific performance, with notable earnings growth in Consumer Discretionary and Financials [33][34]. Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.4, which is in the 89th percentile historically, indicating high valuations [14]. - Forward 1-year returns based on current valuation metrics suggest a median return of 6.6% for the S&P 500 [14]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that corporate preparedness for an economic slowdown and improvements in supply chains could positively impact market performance [18]. - The potential for downside surprise inflation prints without weaker macro data is highlighted as a positive market influence [18].

Prepared for Philip Hu 09 Aug 2024 13:25:01 ET │ 18 pages Japan Equity Strategy Investment strategy with Japan equities returning to an upward trajectory CITI'S TAKE We expect Japan equities to embark on a real recovery in the second half of September after the current period of instability. The themes we highlight for investment strategy in this scenario are 1) recently devalued high-quality names with strong earnings, 2) the decoupling of Japan-US long rates, and 3) elevated visibility on a recovery in do ...