8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Kweichow Moutai with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 [3][4] Core Investment Thesis - Kweichow Moutai is the largest player in the China spirits industry with a 20% value share in 2022 [3] - The company benefits from strong fundamentals, high visibility, and upside from channel reforms [3] - Near-term earnings drivers include wholesale and direct sales growth, product portfolio enhancement, and price hikes [3] - Long-term growth is supported by supply-demand gap, market-driven pricing system, and growth of Moutai-flavor spirits [3] Financial Performance and Estimates - 2Q24 revenue was Rmb37.0bn, up 17% YoY, with net profit of Rmb17.6bn, up 16.1% YoY [35][55] - Moutai Spirits revenue grew 13% YoY to Rmb28.9bn, while Series spirits revenue accelerated to 43% YoY at Rmb7.2bn [35][36] - i-Moutai generated Rmb4.91bn in spirits sales in 2Q24, up 11% YoY, exceeding expectations [55] - The company aims for a 75% dividend payout ratio for 2024-26, implying total shareholder return of Rmb219bn [56] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 is based on a 29.4x 2026E P/E, discounted back to 2024E year-end using a 9.8% CoE [4] - The target P/E includes a 40% premium for Moutai's leading position in China's spirits industry and strong returns profile [4] - Moutai is trading at 21x/18x 2024E/2025E P/Es with a 12% earnings CAGR in 2024E-26E [63] Product and Channel Performance - Wholesale channel sales grew 27% YoY in 2Q24, supported by a price hike in November 2023 [55] - Direct sales grew 6% YoY in 2Q24, contributing 40% of total spirits sales [55][59] - i-Moutai contributed 14% of total sales in 2Q24, with 531k bottles released in July, down 60% YoY [60] Market Trends and Pricing - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb180 for original case and Rmb130 for unpacked bottles in July [78] - Channel inventory stands below 1 month, with shipments expected to increase for the Mid-Autumn Festival [78] - Non-standard SKUs like Jingpin and Zodiac Moutai maintain decent channel profitability [79] Production and Supply - Base spirits production volume declined YoY in 1H24, with Moutai base spirits down 12.3% and Series base spirits down 5.4% [60] - The company has implemented active shipment controls, particularly for Moutai 1935 and Zodiac (500ml) [60]

8 August 2024 | 12:50PM CST _ China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral We see encouraging signs from 1H24 results, including: 1) the announcement of an interim dividend for the first time; 2) a turnaround in free cash flow as previously guided; 3) a net debt decline resulting from cash flow improvements; and 4) net profit is largely in line. Additionally, management provided a more detailed guidance for 2024, including: 1 ...

M Update Consumer Staples | Europe August 8, 2024 06:37 AM GMT Commodity Cost Tracker - July 2024 Key Takeaways MS Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index was up +9.3% y/y in July 2024 vs +11.3% y/y in June 2024 Our index was down -2.4% m/m, driven primarily by a moderation in cocoa and energy prices Excluding the Chocolate companies, our Staples Commodity Cost index was up +1% y/y and flat on a m/m basis MS Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index is up +9.3% on a y/y basis, but - 2.4% m/m in July due to a mode ...

Stock Market A-Share Market Strategy Weekly Wait and See August 11th, 2024 Strategy Research Team: FANG Yi (analyst) GUO Yinhan (assistant) MA Haoran (analyst) 021-38031658 021-38031681 021-38031560 fangyi020833@gtjas.com guoyinhan026925@gtjas.com mahaoran027837@gtjas.com S0880118080080 S0880122080038 S0880523020002 Summary: ● It is advisable to stand by, for the time being. During the sideway corrections of A-share market in the past two weeks, low-valuation sectors and thematic stocks outperformed market ...

9 August 2024 | 8:21PM HKT Asia Credit Trader Decompression Creates Opportunities in Asia HY; Focus on Rate Cuts, Not on Recession The path of Asia credit spreads followed the macro markets over the past week, with spreads under pressure at the start of the week, but rebounding later in the week as macro concerns subside. That said, despite the very sharp increase in equity volatility, there were no signs of panic amongst Asia credit investors, and market activity was relatively muted. Upcoming macro data w ...

Financial Derivatives August 12, 2024 Morning Insight: August 12, 2024 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtjas.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen028987@gtjas.com Main Body Commodity Market Insight： PX (Paraxylene): The correction phase has temporarily ended, with a short-term bottoming out and rebound expected. A SEP-JAN spread strategy is recommended, though the medium-term outlook remains weak. 1.) Last week, crude oil prices were the first to stabilize, but weak demand in ...

12 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hua Hong Semi (1347 HK) Slowly but surely, gradual recovery is in play Hua Hong Semi announced 2Q24 results. Revenue was down 24.2% YoY but up 4.0% QoQ to US$479mn, slightly missing Bloomberg consensus by 2.0% and our estimates by 1.6%. The moderate sequential growth was a result of growing wafer shipments (+8.4% QoQ) partially offset by continued downward ASP (-3.5% QoQ). GPM increased QoQ to 10.5% (vs. 6.4%/27.7% in 1Q24/2Q23) ...

12 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Macro Research | Economic Perspectives China Economy Deflation alleviated, yet demand remains soft CPI growth rebounded and beat market expectations in July as food price notably surged amid supply disruptions caused by high temperature and flooding in some regions. Consumer demand remained soft as core CPI growth declined. Tourism service price sharply rebounded amid vigorous travel demand in the summer holiday, but vehicle and clothing prices continued to dec ...

Sydney CBD Office State of the Market Prime yields stable for first time since early 2022 02 2024 • Prime net face rents rose by 2.1% in Q2, led by the Midtown precinct with 3.6% growth. Meanwhile, incentives rose from 35% to 36%, largely offsetting the impact on effective rents, which edged up by 0.3%. • Tenant demand has been driven by professional and financial services contributing 67% of leasing activity. Activity has been weighted towards the core precinct, accounting for 76% of lease volumes in H1 20 ...