Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes in futures positions among various market participants, indicating a shift towards flattener positions in the back end and steepener positions in the front end [5][22][19] - There were notable inflows in equities, particularly from private investors, with Japan and the Caribbean being the top Treasury buyers in June [1] - Large commercial banks saw an increase in deposits and cash assets, while their holdings in UST/Agency and MBS also rose [42] Summary by Sections CFTC Non-Commercial Futures Positions - Non-commercials removed $20.6 billion in the front end and added $5.6 billion in the back end, resulting in a total of $26.2 billion of a flattener position [5][9] - The breakdown of front-end positions included SOFR (-$2.4 billion), TU (-$2.1 billion), and FV (-$2.1 billion) [9] Traders in Financial Futures - Asset managers put on $8.8 billion of a steepener position, increasing their net longs in FV contracts to the highest level in six months [2][16] - Leveraged funds added $9.0 billion of a steepener position, increasing their net shorts in TY contracts to the highest level in six months [2][19] Primary Dealer Positions - Dealers added $2.7 billion in the front end and $22.3 billion in the back end, resulting in a total of $19.6 billion of a flattener position [22][26] - Dealers decreased their net shorts in TY contracts to the lowest level in six months [26] Large Commercial Bank Positions - Deposits increased by $45.7 billion, and cash assets rose by $6.3 billion, with UST/Agency holdings increasing by $18.0 billion and MBS holdings by $16.4 billion [42] Foreign Central Bank Positions - Foreign Central Bank UST holdings decreased by $16.9 billion, while Agency/MBS holdings decreased by $0.4 billion [47]

ab 30 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab APAC Economic Perspectives Asia by the Numbers (August 2024) Downgrading China's GDP growth forecast to 4.6% in '24 and 4.0% in '25 Despite new easing measures in July, China's property downturn has persisted. Given lingering inventory pressures, we downgraded our property market forecasts, and expect sales, new starts, and investments to continue falling in 2025, albeit at a slower rate. The weakness in property activities and prices has further weighed on ...

M Update Payments and Processing | North America August 26, 2024 12:39 PM GMT Stock Performance Review: V/ MA, PYPL, AFRM Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5771 Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4948 Meryl R Thomas, CFA Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774 Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631 Antonio Jaramillo Research A ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10900 Long-Term Growth Prospects in Peru Leveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Country Daniel Barco Bledi Celiku Paulo Chávez Arthur Mendes Steven Pennings Elena Resk Development Research Group & Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10900 Abstract This pape ...

\ WORLD BANK GROUP BHUTAN COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM Maximizing Bhutan's Potential for Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation Bhutan Country Economic Memorandum © 2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The Wor ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The study reveals that higher conflict exposure does not significantly impact firm profits, as it leads to reductions in both sales and total costs, indicating a decrease in overall economic activity despite stable profits [3][29] - The analysis utilizes longitudinal firm-level data from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019, focusing on the effects of conflict exposure on various firm outcomes [3][7] - The findings suggest that firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy experience more pronounced negative effects from conflict exposure compared to those in countries with high-quality bureaucracy [9][29] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the prevalence of conflict and political violence affecting over 1.7 billion people globally, with significant economic activity continuing under such conditions [7] - It emphasizes the shift from macroeconomic to microeconomic analyses of conflict's effects on firms [7] Data - The primary data source is the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), which includes information from approximately 180,000 firms across 148 countries, focusing on privately owned firms in the formal sector [12] - The study constructs a firm-specific measure of conflict exposure based on the number of political violence events within a 20 km radius of each firm's location [15] Empirical Strategy - The report employs a fixed-effects model to estimate the impact of conflict exposure on firm outcomes, including sales, total costs, and profits [20] - The identification strategy assumes that conflict events near a firm's location are uncorrelated with any latent determinants of its economic performance [20] Results - Increased conflict exposure leads to a significant reduction in median sales by 2.8% for a one-standard-deviation increase in conflict events [21] - Conflict exposure results in a significant reduction in total production costs, primarily due to diminished availability of inputs rather than lower input prices [22] - The null effect on profits indicates that firms adjust their production costs in response to reduced sales [23] Mechanisms - Conflict exposure reduces a firm's access to raw materials and intermediate inputs, particularly imported ones, leading to decreased output [31] - The analysis shows that conflict exposure results in a shift towards employing more unskilled workers, thereby reducing total labor costs [32]

Policy Research Working Paper 10897 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A Literature Review on Productivity and Growth in Brazil Fernando Veloso Gabriel Zaourak Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10897 Abstract Productivity growth in Brazil has not kept pace with developed and emerging economies, despite progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing ...

Policy Research Working Paper 10895 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Dynamic Exports and Labor Markets for Inclusive Growth in Cambodia Deeksha Kokas Jaime Alfonso Roche Rodriguez Gladys Lopez Acevedo Raymond Robertson Wendy Karamba Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10895 Abstract Cambodia's rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and ...

Policy Research Working Paper 10896 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Economic Transformation in Africa The Role of North-South and South-South Trade Woubet Kassa Gideon Ndubuisi Solomon Owusu Africa Region Office of the Chief Economist September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10896 Abstract This paper contributes to the discussion on Africa's pathways to economic transformation by examining the roles of trade patterns—spe ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study investigates the impact of working with same-race coworkers on employee retention, revealing that a decrease in the non-white share of coworkers significantly reduces the retention of non-white workers, while white workers' retention remains unaffected [4][12][46] - The findings suggest that peer dynamics contribute to racial segregation in workplaces, with non-white workers more likely to leave for jobs with a higher proportion of same-race peers [4][13][46] - The analysis utilizes administrative employer-employee data from Brazil, focusing on the effects of unexpected worker deaths as exogenous shocks to peer group composition [4][12][27] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper examines how the presence of same-race peers influences worker retention, positing that individuals prefer to work with those of similar racial backgrounds [8][9] Background and Data - Brazil exhibits significant racial segregation in labor markets, with about 80% of white workers' colleagues being white, compared to 50% for non-white workers [9][21] - The study uses data from the Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS), which includes comprehensive records of formal employment in Brazil [26][27] Empirical Strategy - The research exploits unexpected deaths of workers to analyze changes in peer group racial composition and its effects on retention [27][37] - The study focuses on small peer groups to ensure that the death of one worker significantly impacts the racial composition [33][34] Results - The death of a non-white coworker leads to a 1.1 percentage point decrease in the retention of non-white incumbents, equating to a 1.8% drop relative to the control mean [12][46] - The retention rates of white incumbents show no significant changes following the death of either a white or non-white coworker [12][46] - The study finds that non-white workers tend to leave for new jobs with a higher share of same-race peers, indicating a preference for racial homophily in workplace settings [13][46]