Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Amotiv Limited with a 12-month price target of **A$13.00** [5][6] - The stock is considered cheap at **12x P/E**, with a fair value closer to **15x P/E** based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant balance sheet improvement, with gearing reduced from **~2.6x in 1H23** to **~1.6x** currently [2] - Earnings growth is expected to accelerate, with **EBITA growth of 11% forecasted for FY26e**, up from **3% in FY25e** [2] - The company has made progress in cash conversion, achieving **93% cash conversion**, better than the UBSe estimate of **85%** [3] - New business wins are expected to contribute more materially from **2H25e onwards**, supporting long-term organic growth [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24 was **$987m**, an increase of **8% y/y**, in line with consensus estimates [3] - EBITA for FY24 was **$195m**, up **5% y/y**, supported by a strong **4WD&T EBITA margin of 18.0%** [3] - Operating cash flow declined by **17% y/y to $171m**, cycling a strong comparison period [3] - Net debt stands at **$329m**, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of **1.6x**, at the lower end of the target range [3] Earnings and Valuation - Minimal changes were made to EPS forecasts, with **FY25e EPS trimmed by 2%** and **FY26e EPS unchanged** [4] - The price target of **A$13.00** is based on a **DCF valuation (9.2% WACC)** and **SOTP valuation (11.1x EBITA)** [5] - The stock is trading at a **12.2x P/E for FY25e**, with a forecasted **EPS growth of 12.6% in FY26e** [7] Business Segments - The **4WD & Trailering** segment saw revenue growth of **5% y/y to $349m**, though it was **3% below UBSe estimates** [9] - The **LP&E** segment grew **13% y/y to $324m**, slightly above UBSe estimates [9] - The **P&U** segment grew **6% y/y to $314m**, in line with UBSe estimates [9] Forecasts and Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow by **6.1% in FY25e** and **7.6% in FY26e**, reaching **$1,127m** by FY26e [7] - EBIT is forecasted to grow by **12.2% in FY26e**, driven by stronger performance in the **4WD & Trailering** and **LP&E** segments [7] - The company has flagged additional **product development and greenfield investment**, which is expected to support future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the China securities sector, particularly in Wealth Management (WM) and Asset Management (AM) businesses, forecasting significant growth rates [4][12]. Core Insights - The China brokerage sector's WM revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2023 to 2030, driven by a shift in household asset allocation from non-financial to financial assets [5][4]. - The AM revenue for the China brokerage sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22% during the same period, reaching 11% of total revenue by 2030 [12][11]. - The report highlights that financial assets currently account for only 20% of China's total household assets, compared to 44% in Japan during the 1990s, indicating substantial room for growth in financial asset allocation [5][8]. - The introduction of China's buy-side investment advisory pilot in 2019 and subsequent industry-wide rollout in 2023 is expected to enhance the WM capabilities of brokerages [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with full-service brokerage channels gaining market share as demand for professional investment advisory services increases [8][9]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management (WM) Business - The report forecasts a 26% CAGR for the China brokerage sector's WM revenue from 2023 to 2030, driven by a reallocation of household assets towards financial products [4][5]. - The current mix of financial assets in household assets in China is significantly lower than in Japan during its economic peak, suggesting potential for growth [5][8]. Asset Management (AM) Business - The AM revenue is expected to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, with a positive correlation between fund scale and stock market development [12][11]. - The diversification of mutual fund sales channels in China is more advanced than in Japan during the 1990s, which is seen as a key factor for the growth of the AM industry [15][12]. Market Dynamics - China's household wealth has experienced a rapid 16% CAGR from 2000 to 2019, indicating a growing base for financial products [9][12]. - The report notes that as of June 30, 2024, the total AUM of China's mutual funds reached RMB 29.1 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several banks including BOC, CCB, CMB, and CITIC, while ICBC, ABC, PSBC, and BOCOM are rated as "Neutral" and Huishang is rated as "Sell" [8][9]. Core Insights - QIFU reported a non-GAAP net income of Rmb1,417 million for Q2 2024, reflecting a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by improved asset quality and a write-back of provisions [1]. - The first-home mortgage rate in Guangzhou has been reduced to as low as 2.9%, following a recent cut in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which is expected to stimulate housing demand [2]. - Non-bank financial institutions have been purchasing government bonds at premium prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential regulatory scrutiny [3]. - The annualized yield of wealth management products has decreased by 194 basis points to 2.4% due to rising bond yields, impacting the attractiveness of these products [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - QFIN's Q2 2024 results showed a non-GAAP net income of Rmb1.417 billion, exceeding guidance by 13%, with a strong operating profit increase of 46% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The forecast for 2024E non-GAAP net income has been raised to Rmb5.8 billion, indicating a 29% growth year-on-year [1]. Mortgage Rates - The first-home mortgage rate in Guangzhou is now as low as 2.9%, closely aligning with the housing provident fund's borrowing cost of 2.85% [2]. - The average first-home mortgage rate across 45 major cities is reported at 3.29% [2]. Market Dynamics - Non-bank financial institutions are reportedly avoiding state-owned banks for bond purchases, reflecting a strategic shift in their investment approach [3]. - The increase in bond yields has led to a decline in the net asset value of wealth management products, highlighting the impact of market conditions on investment products [4]. Valuation Summary - The report provides a valuation summary for various banks, indicating potential upside for "Buy" rated banks such as CMB (40.6% upside) and CITIC (31.7% upside) [8]. - The average dividend yield for H-share banks is noted at 7.7%, with varying growth rates across different institutions [8].

First Read Samsonite Q224 top-line and guidance miss, margin under control Miss on top-line and guidance likely cushioned by already low valuation Samsonite's Q224 adjusted EBITDA was broadly in line with the ballpark of market expectations, but its top-line appeared to fall short of them. While the market has widely expected macro headwinds, primarily in China and India, to weigh on Samsonite's sales performance, Q224 sales and the new guidance appeared to fall slightly short of market expectations, which ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab SP Setia Land sales to outshine Battersea fears Q: How did the results compare with expectations? We think the latest results missed expectations. Key highlights include higher losses at its UK JV, slower residential sales and fairly muted guidance on potential land sales ahead. In H124, lumpy land sales recognition drove the significant +234% YoY increase in PAT to RM404m, though core profit (excluding land sales, Battersea losses) only formed 44% of our e ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Central Retail Corporation Q224: Results were in line as fashion and food segments led the growth How did the results compare vs expectations? Central Retail Corporation reported Q224 core net profit of Bt1,613m (-36% QoQ, -6% YoY), in line with UBSe and consensus. CRC's top line of Bt56,242m (-7% QoQ, +5% YoY) and its total gross margin of 28.7% (+111bps QoQ, +7bps YoY) were also in line. SG&A-to-total revenue increased by 148bps QoQ to 28.2%, b ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read BTS Group Q125: Deeper net loss vs expectations How did the results compare vs expectations? BTS reported its pre-ex net loss of Bt382m, widening from a core net loss of Bt127m in Q124, excluding the impact of one-time impairment of its subsidiary investment reported in Q124. This result missed our estimate of a Bt170m net loss for the quarter. We attribute the miss vs our estimate to a weaker EBITDA contribution from the MIX (Media and digital s ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Qifu Technology A clean beat underpinned by robust asset quality Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? QFIN reported Q224 non-GAAP net income of Rmb1,417m, +17% QoQ and beat company guidance by 13%. Despite muted top-line growth (flattish QoQ), operating profit showed much stronger momentum (+46% QoQ), primarily driven by a sizable write-back of past prudent provisions (Rmb480m) after asset quality showed continued improvement YTD. With ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ayala Corporation with a 12-month price target of P850.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - Ayala Corporation reported a core net profit of P12.5 billion for Q224, reflecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter and 12% year-over-year increase, leading to a total of P24.3 billion for H124, which is an 18% year-over-year growth [2][3]. - The growth was primarily driven by strong performances from its core subsidiaries, including BPI (+22%), ALI (+15%), GLO (+18%), and ACEN (+21%) [2][3]. - The residential property and power generation segments showed significant improvement, with ALI's residential revenue up 40% year-over-year in H124 and ACEN's generation output expanding 42% year-over-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Ayala Corporation's revenues for H124 reached P202.2 billion, with net earnings of P28.3 billion and an EPS of P45.43 for the year ending 2022 [6]. - The company expects continued strong trends in its core businesses, particularly in residential and renewable energy sectors [4][3]. Business Outlook - ALI has adjusted its 2024 launch target to P85 billion from P115 billion to focus on reducing inventory levels [4]. - ACEN anticipates strong performance for the remainder of the year, although H2 is typically weaker due to seasonal factors [4]. Valuation and Market Metrics - The report highlights a forecast price appreciation of 37.5% and a forecast stock return of 38.6% [9]. - Ayala Corporation's market capitalization is noted at P383 billion (approximately US$6.72 billion) with a free float of 40% [7]. Key Business Segments - The banking segment (BPI) is benefiting from higher net interest margins and above-industry loan growth, while the real estate segment (ALI) is experiencing robust residential revenue growth [2][3]. - The telecommunications segment (GLO) is seeing improved earnings driven by Mynt, and ACEN is expanding its renewable energy capacity significantly [2][3].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Srisawad Corporation Q224A: profit beat on asset quality improvement Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Net profit of Bt1.3bn (+14% yoy, +3% qoq) was in line with BBGe of Bt1.3bn and beat UBSe of Bt1.14bn by 14%. The earnings beat came from lower-than-expected loss on car repossession and provision expense. Overall result shows that asset quality control began to shore up profit growth. H124 profit accounts 48-50% of BBG/UBS full ...