Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Sundrug Q1 FY3/25 results: OP broadly in line with the company's plan Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Q1 FY3/25 OP came in at ¥10.9bn, up 10% yoy, which is a solid result relative to our forecast of ¥10.5bn and the IBES consensus of ¥10.6bn. The company says OP was broadly in line with its plan. By segment, in the drugstore business, sales came in short and OP undershot management's budget slightly, whereas the discount store busi ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 August 2024 Equities Australia Telecommunications Lucy Huang Analyst lucy.huang@ubs.com +61-2-9324 2253 Ailsa Lei Analyst ailsa.lei@ubs.com. +61-2-9324 3181 Sparsh Polepalle Associate Analyst sparsh.polepalle@ubs.com +61-2-9324 2000 First Read Australian Telecom Sector Optus 1Q25. Mobile ARPUs lift another +$1 QoQ 1Q25 result - key takeaways Singapore Telecom (Singtel), owner of Optus, reported 1Q25 results today. 1. Mobile services rev $1bn; 2. Mobile subs. Ending total ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 August 2024 First Read Magellan Financial Group UBS SnapShot: FY24 Result ONE LINER KEY NUMBERS RESULT HIGHLIGHTS (FY24 unless otherwise stated) GUIDANCE UBS COMMENT CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS Equities Australia Diversified Financial 12-month ratingBuy 12m price target A$10.50 Price (14 Aug 2024) A$9.70 RIC: MFG.AX BBG: MFG AU Trading data and key metrics 52-wk range A$10.42-6.22 Market cap. A$1.80b/US$1.19b Shares o/s 186m (ORD) Free float 26% Avg. daily volume ('000) 603 A ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Seven Group Holdings Industrial Services momentum to support HSD EBIT growth in FY25. Buy FY24 EBIT growth delivered above guidance Seven Group delivered a solid FY24 result, with EBIT growth of +20% ahead of guidance for "mid to high teen" percent growth. The Industrial Services segment delivered +28% EBIT growth, with strong operating performances across WesTrac, Coates, and Boral. WesTrac delivered double digit revenue growth in both machine sales and se ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab BWP Trust Back to growth in FY25 Guidance showing growth for the first time in 5yrs BWP's FY24 NPAT (adj. for SL of rent) was $120.5m vs. UBSe $117.5m, supported by strong lfl rental growth of 4.2%. Guidance for FY25 DPU growth of 2% reflects the first growth in 5 years from 18.29c DPU, with no more than ~$1.8m of capital profits required to support DPU implying underlying growth. LFL rental growth should remain strong into FY25 with 12% of leases subj. to ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for AGL Energy with a 12-month price target of A$11.00, slightly up from the previous A$10.85 [6]. Core Insights - AGL reported a solid FY24 result with NPAT of A$812 million, which is 2-3% ahead of consensus estimates. The FY25 earnings guidance is also 2% above consensus [2]. - The electricity portfolio margins remain strong at A$55/MWh, supported by operational flexibility investments at Loy Yang and Bayswater power stations [2]. - Gas portfolio margins averaged A$7.50/GJ, benefiting from a favorable mix shift towards higher-margin retail customers [2]. - AGL's forecast indicates a -1% CAGR in NPAT over FY24-27, with downside risks balanced by potential upside from wholesale electricity and gas prices [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AGL's FY24 NPAT was A$812 million, with a strong generation availability contributing to better earnings in both electricity and gas divisions [8]. - The company completed flexibility upgrades at key power stations, enhancing its ability to capture wholesale price volatility [8]. - Revenue for FY24 is projected at A$13,583 million, with EBITDA at A$2,216 million, reflecting a 3% increase from prior estimates [27]. Margins and Forecasts - Electricity margins are expected to moderate in FY25 and FY26 before a multi-year growth phase, driven by investments in batteries and wind assets [11]. - Short-term wholesale electricity futures prices are projected to average A$99/MWh in 2025 and A$97/MWh in 2026, indicating elevated market volatility [12]. - Gas margins are expected to remain strong in the medium term but may face compression as legacy contracts roll off starting in FY28 [20][17]. Development Pipeline - AGL's development pipeline includes a binding agreement to acquire Firm Power and Terrain Solar for A$250 million, providing significant capacity development options in batteries and solar projects [21]. - The report highlights four battery projects with development approvals that could add 870MW of capacity at an estimated capex of A$1.3 billion [22]. - AGL's balance sheet is positioned to maintain significant headroom under various capex and pricing stress scenarios, with FFO/net debt expected to remain within 50-75% over FY25-29 [3][24].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Orora FY24 better than feared. Destocking still ongoing. FY24 EBIT beat on better Saverglass and OPS results Orora delivered FY24 EBIT of $404mn, +6% ahead of consensus forecasts, reflecting better than expected performance from both the OPS and Saverglass business units. The OPS business delivered +50bps of EBIT margin expansion despite revenues declining - 11% (USD terms), with benefits from Orora's operational transformation plan helping to offset both p ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Lifestyle Communities In the eye of the storm – upgrade to Buy FY24 pre-announcement with current trading reflecting the trough LIC's FY24 UPAT of $52.9m was in line with UBSe at $52.6m given pre-announcement, with 311 settlements achieved. The focus today was on recent trading post the 7.30 Report investigation of LIC's sales strategy and Deferred Management Fee (DMF), with UBSe ~19 net cancellations post 30 June (likely ~30 gross cancellations with minima ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Amotiv Limited with a 12-month price target of **A$13.00** [5][6] - The stock is considered cheap at **12x P/E**, with a fair value closer to **15x P/E** based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant balance sheet improvement, with gearing reduced from **~2.6x in 1H23** to **~1.6x** currently [2] - Earnings growth is expected to accelerate, with **EBITA growth of 11% forecasted for FY26e**, up from **3% in FY25e** [2] - The company has made progress in cash conversion, achieving **93% cash conversion**, better than the UBSe estimate of **85%** [3] - New business wins are expected to contribute more materially from **2H25e onwards**, supporting long-term organic growth [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24 was **$987m**, an increase of **8% y/y**, in line with consensus estimates [3] - EBITA for FY24 was **$195m**, up **5% y/y**, supported by a strong **4WD&T EBITA margin of 18.0%** [3] - Operating cash flow declined by **17% y/y to $171m**, cycling a strong comparison period [3] - Net debt stands at **$329m**, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of **1.6x**, at the lower end of the target range [3] Earnings and Valuation - Minimal changes were made to EPS forecasts, with **FY25e EPS trimmed by 2%** and **FY26e EPS unchanged** [4] - The price target of **A$13.00** is based on a **DCF valuation (9.2% WACC)** and **SOTP valuation (11.1x EBITA)** [5] - The stock is trading at a **12.2x P/E for FY25e**, with a forecasted **EPS growth of 12.6% in FY26e** [7] Business Segments - The **4WD & Trailering** segment saw revenue growth of **5% y/y to $349m**, though it was **3% below UBSe estimates** [9] - The **LP&E** segment grew **13% y/y to $324m**, slightly above UBSe estimates [9] - The **P&U** segment grew **6% y/y to $314m**, in line with UBSe estimates [9] Forecasts and Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow by **6.1% in FY25e** and **7.6% in FY26e**, reaching **$1,127m** by FY26e [7] - EBIT is forecasted to grow by **12.2% in FY26e**, driven by stronger performance in the **4WD & Trailering** and **LP&E** segments [7] - The company has flagged additional **product development and greenfield investment**, which is expected to support future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the China securities sector, particularly in Wealth Management (WM) and Asset Management (AM) businesses, forecasting significant growth rates [4][12]. Core Insights - The China brokerage sector's WM revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2023 to 2030, driven by a shift in household asset allocation from non-financial to financial assets [5][4]. - The AM revenue for the China brokerage sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22% during the same period, reaching 11% of total revenue by 2030 [12][11]. - The report highlights that financial assets currently account for only 20% of China's total household assets, compared to 44% in Japan during the 1990s, indicating substantial room for growth in financial asset allocation [5][8]. - The introduction of China's buy-side investment advisory pilot in 2019 and subsequent industry-wide rollout in 2023 is expected to enhance the WM capabilities of brokerages [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with full-service brokerage channels gaining market share as demand for professional investment advisory services increases [8][9]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management (WM) Business - The report forecasts a 26% CAGR for the China brokerage sector's WM revenue from 2023 to 2030, driven by a reallocation of household assets towards financial products [4][5]. - The current mix of financial assets in household assets in China is significantly lower than in Japan during its economic peak, suggesting potential for growth [5][8]. Asset Management (AM) Business - The AM revenue is expected to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, with a positive correlation between fund scale and stock market development [12][11]. - The diversification of mutual fund sales channels in China is more advanced than in Japan during the 1990s, which is seen as a key factor for the growth of the AM industry [15][12]. Market Dynamics - China's household wealth has experienced a rapid 16% CAGR from 2000 to 2019, indicating a growing base for financial products [9][12]. - The report notes that as of June 30, 2024, the total AUM of China's mutual funds reached RMB 29.1 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [20][21].