Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on inflation trends, with a headline CPI increase of 0.15% in July and a 12-month inflation rate decreasing to 2.9%, the lowest since May 2021 [2][3]. Core Insights - The core CPI rose by 0.17% in July, leading to a 12-month core inflation rate of 3.2%, down from 3.3% in June, showing a significant decline from its peak in September 2022 [3][4]. - The report highlights that the increase in food prices away from home (21bp) aligns closely with pre-pandemic trends, indicating a potential stabilization in inflation [2][3]. - Owners' equivalent rent (OER) saw a notable increase of 36bp in July, suggesting that rent prices are a key factor in the current inflation landscape [4][18]. Summary by Sections Headline CPI - The headline CPI increased by 15 basis points in July, with a 12-month inflation rate of 2.9%, down from 3.0% in June [2]. - Energy prices remained stable, while food prices increased moderately, indicating a controlled inflation environment [2][3]. Core CPI - Core CPI rose by 17 basis points in July, with a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%, reflecting a downward trend from previous months [3]. - The report notes that core inflation remains approximately 90 basis points above the Federal Open Market Committee's PCE inflation target [3]. Rent and Housing - Owners' equivalent rent increased by 36 basis points in July, which is still below the previous range of 42-47 basis points observed over the past ten months [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OER as it significantly influences core inflation [4][18]. Volatile Components - Core goods prices fell for the 13th time in 14 months, with used vehicle prices declining by 2.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in certain sectors [4][7]. - Core non-rent services saw a rise of 21 basis points, driven by increases in lodging and transportation services [4][6]. Future Projections - The report anticipates a moderate strengthening in CPI monthly changes through October, with core CPI projected to increase by 19 basis points in the next release [8]. - The 12-month core CPI inflation is expected to remain stable until the end of the year due to base effects [8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2024 to 3.0% from a previous estimate of 2.2% [1] Core Insights - Strong Q2 GDP growth of 3.2% year-on-year (unadjusted) exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 2.7% [1] - The positive statistical carry-over for FY 2024 GDP has increased from approximately 1 percentage point to 2.7 percentage points due to revisions in past quarters [1] - The report anticipates further GDP acceleration to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, aligning with consensus forecasts for 2024 but remaining more conservative for 2025-2026 [1] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP growth was significantly stronger than expected, with a sequential increase of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 1% consensus [1] - Revisions to previous quarters contributed 0.5 percentage points to the current forecast, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] Consumption and Investment - The report suggests that inventories and potentially consumption are likely drivers of the GDP rebound, despite subdued activity data in construction and retail sales [2] - Industrial output showed a modest increase of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, following a decline in Q1 [2] - Investment is expected to remain a drag on headline GDP, while net exports likely contributed negatively to growth due to weak external demand [2] Inflation and Energy Prices - July tariff increases for electricity and gas were lower than expected, contributing to a dovish consumer price index (CPI) print [3] - Electricity prices rose by 19.9% month-on-month, and gas prices increased by 16.8% month-on-month, which were below earlier projections [3] - The report anticipates that household energy tariff increases in January 2025 may be smaller than previously estimated, potentially leading to a peak headline CPI of around 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Swedish economy, expecting the Riksbank to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% next week, with further cuts anticipated in September and December [2][4][8]. Core Insights - Headline inflation in July rose to 1.7% year-on-year, driven by electricity prices, while core inflation decreased to 2.2% year-on-year [2][5]. - The Riksbank is expected to guide for two additional rate cuts this year, reflecting a dovish shift in its monetary policy stance [4][7]. - The report forecasts CPIF inflation to remain below the target for the rest of the year, with annual forecasts of 2.0% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025 [3][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - July headline inflation increased to 1.7% year-on-year from 1.3% in June, while core inflation fell to 2.2% from 2.3% [2][5]. - The Riksbank's rate cut is supported by a downward trend in core inflation and a contraction in GDP of -0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [4][6]. Inflation Analysis - Core goods inflation turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, while food prices and services inflation remained stable at 1.8% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively [3][5]. - The report anticipates CPIF inflation to stay below the target for the remainder of the year, with fluctuations expected in CPIF ex energy between 2.1% and 2.7% [3][8]. Riksbank Policy Outlook - The Riksbank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in August, followed by another cut in September, bringing the policy rate to 3.0% by the end of 2024 [8]. - The report suggests that the Riksbank will not publish new forecasts at its upcoming meeting but will likely provide more explicit guidance on the rate path [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide a numerical investment rating for the industry but indicates a general positive outlook based on the continuity of pro-corporate policies under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [2][3]. Core Insights - The resignation of Prime Minister Kishida is expected to lead to a presidential election within the LDP, with potential candidates including Shigeru Ishiba and Shinjiro Koizumi among others [1]. - The report anticipates that while there may be no major ideological shifts, differences in fiscal and monetary policies could impact the stock market [2]. - Historical trends suggest that stock prices tend to rise during periods of political dissolution and general elections, indicating a potential buying opportunity during these phases [3]. Summary by Sections Political Context - Prime Minister Kishida's decision not to run for re-election could lead to a shift in leadership within the LDP, with elections scheduled for late September [1]. - The report notes that the approval ratings of the Cabinet and LDP are currently stagnant, and improvements could lead to a general election [3]. Economic Policies - The continuity of pro-business policies is expected as long as the LDP remains in power, although variations in specific policy areas such as fiscal and monetary strategies may arise [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the stock market's reaction to the upcoming political changes and potential policy shifts [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report has Buy ratings on Toyota Industries, Denso, and Suzuki, while Sell ratings are assigned to Honda, Isuzu, and Hino [5][32]. Core Insights - New car prices and cost of ownership remain high, with July US CPI data showing new vehicle prices down 0.1% month-over-month and down 1.1% year-over-year, while used car prices decreased by 1.1% month-over-month and 10.9% year-over-year [3][4]. - The average incentive per vehicle at Honda was $2,728 in July, reflecting a year-over-year increase of $1,089 (up 66%), driven by BEV incentives [4]. - The BEV weighting relative to overall sales increased from 6.5% in March 2024 to 7.8% in July, with Honda leading Japanese OEMs in BEV sales [5]. Summary by Sections Pricing Trends - New vehicle prices remain stable at high levels, with average incentives per unit rising to $3,398, similar to levels seen from 2010 to 2020 [3]. - Auto insurance costs have continued to rise by double digits year-over-year since October 2022, contributing to high vehicle ownership costs [3][10]. BEV Market Dynamics - Honda's BEV incentives are projected to rise to around $10,000, influenced by competitive pricing strategies and the introduction of new models [4]. - The report anticipates ongoing increases in incentives as BEV sales grow, particularly from 2025 onwards [4]. Sales Performance - In July, Honda sold 4,152 BEVs, leading among Japanese manufacturers, followed by Nissan and Toyota [5]. - The report notes that the Civic HEV's sales contribution is expected to align with that of the Accord, with a significant price difference between HEV and ICE versions [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month price target of ¥1,700.0, while the current price is ¥1,374 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a better than expected recovery in the China market, with its share of the nursing bottle market increasing from 39% to 44% [3]. - Local currency sales in China rose by 13%, and the company expects to achieve a market share of 50% by the end of FY12/24 [3][4]. - The company anticipates year-on-year growth in sales and operating profit for the second half of the fiscal year [4]. Financial Performance - Q2 operating profit was ¥3.1 billion, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, surpassing forecasts by 7% and consensus by 10% [2]. - Full-year guidance remains unchanged, with expectations of ¥3.2 billion in sales and ¥1.9 billion in operating profit for H2 [4]. - The revenue forecast for FY12/24 is ¥101.2 billion, reflecting a 6.9% year-on-year increase [7]. Market Strategy - The company has increased its advertising and sales promotion expenditures, particularly on e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Redbook, to support sales growth [3][5]. - A new product pipeline for H2 includes childcare appliances in Japan and nursing bottles for older users in China, which are expected to enhance sales [3]. Investor Sentiment - The market reaction to the recovery in the China market share is expected to be positive, with anticipated revenue growth supporting profit growth from FY12/25 [5].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Sundrug Earnings update: ongoing growth in sales and profit Action: updating our forecast in light of Q1 results We are updating our forecast following Sundrug's Q1 results release. We only fine-tune our OP forecast and adjust our price target from ¥4,250 to ¥4,190. We maintain our Neutral rating. Investment overview: focus on improvements in Kirindo's enterprise value Sundrug is one of Japan's leading drugstores. The company operates discount stores as well a ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for automotive companies, including "Buy," "Sell," and "Neutral" classifications for different manufacturers [11][12]. Core Insights - The US Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market is suggested to have bottomed out, indicating potential recovery and growth opportunities [3][61]. - The report highlights the performance of various automotive manufacturers, with specific attention to their market valuations and projected earnings [11][12]. Summary by Sections Automotive OEMs Valuation - Volkswagen (VW) is rated "Sell" with a market value of $54 billion and a target price of $100, currently priced at $93.2 [11]. - Mercedes-Benz is rated "Buy" with a market value of $85 billion and a target price of $130, currently priced at $57.8 [11]. - Tesla is rated "Sell" with a market value of $663 billion and a target price of $197, currently priced at $207.8 [11]. Automotive Suppliers Valuation - Mobileye Global is rated "Buy" with a market value of $1 billion and a target price of $22, currently priced at $14.8 [12]. - Denso is rated "Buy" with a market value of $48 billion and a target price of $3,200, currently priced at $2,188 [12]. - Panasonic is rated "Sell" with a market value of $18.2 billion and a target price of $1,065, currently priced at $1,093.5 [12]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in BEV sales in China and the US, with projections indicating a strong growth trajectory for the sector [55][61]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the performance of key players like Tesla, Hyundai, and Ford in the BEV market [61][64].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Medley Profit level comes up short due to growth in costs Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Q2 (April-June) FY12/24 OP (prior to goodwill amortisation adjustments) came in at ¥2.02bn (-1.0% yoy), which is below the IFIS consensus (¥2.68bn) and our forecast (¥2.8bn). The undershoot relative to what we expected was due to one-off factors in the HR platform business and higher company-wide costs. The OP margin in the HR platform busine ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" for Sundrug with a price target of ¥4,250 [3][17]. Core Insights - Sundrug's Q1 FY3/25 operating profit (OP) was ¥10.9 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, which aligns with the company's plan and exceeds both the forecast of ¥10.5 billion and the IBES consensus of ¥10.6 billion [2]. - The drugstore segment's sales fell short of expectations, while the discount store segment outperformed due to cost efficiencies [2]. - The company anticipates starting product supply to Kirindo Holdings in the second half of FY3/25, which may impact future earnings [2]. Financial Metrics Summary - Revenues are projected to grow from ¥751.8 billion in FY3/24 to ¥802.7 billion in FY3/25, with further increases expected in subsequent years [4]. - EBIT is expected to rise from ¥41.0 billion in FY3/24 to ¥43.9 billion in FY3/25, indicating a stable profitability outlook [4]. - Net earnings are forecasted to increase from ¥29.1 billion in FY3/24 to ¥29.4 billion in FY3/25, with EPS projected to be ¥251.4 for FY3/25 [4]. - The forecasted price appreciation is 9.5%, with a dividend yield of 3.3%, leading to an expected total stock return of 12.9% [5]. Company Overview - Sundrug operates as a major drugstore chain in Japan, offering a range of products including prescription drugs, cosmetics, and food items, and also runs a discount store business under the name DIREX [6].