Strong China export growth:merchandise trade or supply chain reconfiguration?
Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited· 2024-08-13 12:10
Equity Research Report Economics Strong China export growth: merchandise trade or supply chain reconfiguration? Huatai Research 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland) In-depth In January-July 2024 (7M24), China's export value in USD terms rose by 4% yoy, and yoy growth in export value in RMB terms (6.7%) and that in export volume (c. 15%) notably outpaced that in domestic demand. Meanwhile, contributions made by external demand to GDP and corporate profit growth continued to increase on a high base last year, wi ...
Macro Views:Export Volume Growth Remained High in July
Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited· 2024-08-13 12:09
Equity Research Report Macro Views Export Volume Growth Remained High in July Huatai Research 8 August 2024 | China (Mainland) Eva Yl Analyst SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 Comment on China's trade data for July 2024 According to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), for July 2024, China's yoy export growth in USD terms fell from 8.6% in June to 7%, falling below Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.5%; yoy import growth in USD terms rallied from -2.3% in Jun ...
Midstream CapitalTraded Goods, New Infrastructure Outperformed
Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited· 2024-08-13 12:09
Equity Research Report Strategy Midstream Capital/Traded Goods, New Infrastructure Outperformed Huatai Research 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland) Monthly Midstream capital/traded goods, new infrastructure outperformed According to our model, in July 2024, the business climate of all sectors and all non-financial sectors in the A-share market picked up slightly, while some still saw increased sales volume but decreased selling prices, with demand yet to improve, consistent with China's July PMI data. Specifi ...
China Securities:CSC Research Daily Highlights-20240814
China Securities· 2024-08-13 11:03
CSC Research Daily Highlights August 13, 2024 Research Department China Securities Co., Ltd This compilation is an abndged translation of the corresponding Chinese reports Please refer to the important statement on the last page Daily Highlights * This complation is distributed by China Securities Co., Ltd. in the People's Republic of China (for the purposes of this Report only, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and subject to applicable laws and regulations, this compliation may be distributed by Chi ...
GOAL:Asset Allocation
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-13 10:26
Global Investme GOAL: Asset Allocation Summertime Sadness; Neutral 3m and looking t August 2024 Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA Andrea Ferrario Global Strategist Global Strategist Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International 44-20-7774-1714 chrisban musiler-gliss 44-20 7552-4353 androa.forrado@gs.se Investors should consider this report as only at single factor in making that investment decision. For Rog AC certification and other important disclosures; so or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html ...
China: CPI inflation increased in July on higher food prices
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-13 10:25
9 August 2024 | 11:07AM HKT China: CPI inflation increased in July on higher food prices Bottom line: China's headline CPI inflation increased to +0.5% yoy in July from +0.2% yoy in June, while headline PPI inflation was flat at -0.8% yoy in July. Food price inflation rose across the board in July due to a decrease in supply from adverse weather. Both non-food price inflation and core inflation edged down in July, indicating continued weakness of domestic demand. PPI inflation in upstream sectors rose modes ...
Strategy:Market Dynamics Post Carry Trade Reversal
Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited· 2024-08-13 10:02
Equity Research Report Strategy Market Dynamics Post Carry Trade Reversal Huatai Research 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland) Weekly Market to remain volatile in short run, with focus on high-low rotation Weak M1 data in yoy terms, low expectations for the long-term credit cycle, and foreign capital outflow due to election trading have rapidly driven up market risk premiums since June. Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation have unlocked room for domestic monetary policy, in our view ...
Tactical Derivatives Strategy
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 10:00
Investment Ratings - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is rated Overweight with a price target (PT) of $340/share [5][19] - Target Corporation (TGT) is rated Neutral with a PT of $153/share [11][19] Core Insights - PANW shares have risen 12.4% year-to-date, performing in line with the S&P 500 index (+13% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite index (+12% YTD) [5] - Despite a nearly 4% drop following billings weakness in F3Q'24 results, PANW is well-positioned for future growth due to better margin expansion and potential revenue recovery [5] - TGT shares have underperformed, falling almost 4% YTD, as the company faces challenges related to consumer discretionary spending and sales declines [10][11] Summary by Sections Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - The report recommends bullish investors to overlay positions with a September 13th $335/$360 strike 1x2 Call Spread Booster, indicating a 0.1% option premium against a reference price of $331.48 [5] - The implied move for PANW stands at almost 10%, which is above its 5-year (8.3%) and 10-year (8.0%) averages [3] - The valuation is based on a 31.7x EV/FCF multiple of CY24 estimates, implying a 29.6x multiple on CY25 FCF estimates, which is slightly discounted compared to peers [5] Target Corporation (TGT) - The report suggests bearish investors buy a September 13th $150/$132/$127 strike Collared Put Spread, paying a 0.2% option premium against a reference price of $135.50 [6] - TGT's implied move is almost 8%, in line with its medium-term average but above its longer-term history [10] - The team expects management to narrow down guidance for both comps and EPS, potentially leading to downward revisions and pressure on shares [11]
Korea:Customs exports rose in early August
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:59
J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 12 August 2024 Korea: Customs exports rose in early August Customs exports during the first 10-days of August rose 16.7%oya, despite fewer trading days this month than a year ago. As a result, we estimate that the full-month exports should rise 21.4%oya in August vs. 13.9%oya actual growth in July. If seasonally adjusted, the first 10-day exports rebounded 5.5%m/m, sa after a 5.6% fall in July (although it is a noisy 10-day series, not the actual full month ...
Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:59
J.P.Mor Europe Emerging Markets Research 12 August 2024 Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly Inflation risk assessment key to SARB policy outlook In our view, the likelihood of a larger than previously forecasted 25bp cut in September has now risen to 40% - 50%, but FX pressures and services inflation risks will determine the eventuality. In recent months, the SARB had remained cautious and hesitant to start an easing cycle, even as local political and fiscal risks diminished. A key argume ...