13 August 2024 | 8:06AM BST Valneva SE (VLS.PA): 2024 First Take: Weak Dukoral sales drive topline miss requiring significant step up to meet guidance Valneva reported 2024 earnings with revenue coming in at €38.1m, 13%/11% below GSe/Company-compiled consensus estimates of €43.8mn/€42.7mn driven by product sales which were 13%/8% below (refer to Exhibit 2 for comparison vs Visible Alpha Consensus Data for individual products). Within this, Ixario sales grew 96% YoY (52% QoQ) and were 6%/24% above GSe/Visibl ...

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13 August 2024 | 8:45AM BST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 UK: June Labour Market—Private Sector Regular Pay in Line with Our Expectations, but Unemployment Rate Comes in Lower BOTTOM LINE: Private sector regular pay growth came in at 5.2% on a three-month year-on-year basis in June, in line with our expectations but slightly above the BoE's August MPR projection. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month pace came in at 0.35%, in line with our forecast and below the 0.50% average pace seen in the first five ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Nihon Kohden with a revised 12-month price target of ¥2,180, down from ¥3,000 [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a need for a rebound in market credibility due to weak Q1 results, leading to a conservative outlook on sales estimates for Japan and China [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, demand for CT/MRI scans in Japan remains positive, and hospitals' capital expenditures are reportedly on track [1]. - The report suggests that the current stock price reflects an operating profit (OP) margin of 7-8%, which is below the forecasted 10.9% for FY3/26, indicating potential upside [1][11]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profit Estimates - The estimated sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Japan has been lowered from 2.8% to 0.8% due to uncertainties surrounding hospital capital expenditures and government reforms [2]. - In China, a negative impact of approximately ¥2 billion per year is anticipated from the government's anti-corruption measures [2]. - EPS estimates have been revised downwards for FY3/25 from ¥102 to ¥82, for FY3/26 from ¥133 to ¥106, and for FY3/27 from ¥162 to ¥132 [2]. Market Dynamics - The shift in medical fee revisions from April to June has delayed capital expenditure decisions by hospitals, with reductions in administrative fees causing further delays [3]. - Stricter standards for calculating premiums for hospitals providing comprehensive care may positively impact demand, but a major rebound is not expected until H1 FY3/25 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of ¥2,180 is based on a FY3/26 EPS estimate of ¥107 and a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 20.2X, reflecting a 10% discount to pre-pandemic averages [4]. - The stock currently trades at a PER of 20X, which is below the average of 21X during the FY3/23-24 period, indicating that the market may be overly pessimistic [4]. Competitive Landscape - Nihon Kohden's domestic business is expected to achieve an OP margin of 18% in FY3/27, slightly higher than competitor Fukuda Denshi's 19% margin in FY3/24, due to a higher proportion of profitable in-house products [10][11]. - The company has initiated a comprehensive program to revamp its earnings structure, which is crucial for improving profitability [10].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Freightways Still in neutral Retain Neutral following recent re-rating with... FRW's short-term misvaluation has materially reduced following its re-rating of 20% over the last six weeks with expectations of earlier monetary easing lifting investor appetite in NZ cyclical stocks. Looking forward, FRW investment case is now reliant on a return to attractive (double-digit) earnings growth. While we expect EPS to lift in FY25e it is likely to be mostly contain ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Spot On SA Miners—momentum & yield if spot prevails South Africa Mining 8% downside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings, on average If spot commodity prices prevail, we calculate upside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings for the gold miners (+32%) and the SA diversifieds (+1%) on an average market cap-weighted basis, while we calculate downside risk to for the PGM miners (- 15%) and dual-listeds (-21%) on an average market cap-weighted basis ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China CSSC Holdings is "Buy" with a price target of RMB 50.00 as of 12 August 2024 [10]. Core Insights - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding reported H124 results with a revenue growth of 15% year-over-year (YoY) and a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement of 8 percentage points YoY [1]. - The company achieved a strong order win of USD 8.5 billion in H124, which is 188% of its full-year goal for 2024, resulting in a total order book of USD 20 billion, equating to a duration of 4.6 years [1][2]. - The CEO indicated that while the upcycle for container shipbuilding may have peaked, there is an expectation for increased orders for energy shipping vessels, such as product tankers and LNG carriers [2]. - The shipbuilding margin is expected to remain stable, with Yangzijiang being the shipyard with the highest margins in the market, assuming no significant increases in steel prices or RMB appreciation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's H124 revenue grew by 15% YoY and 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1]. - The GPM improved by 8 percentage points YoY and 1 percentage point QoQ [1]. Order Book and Market Outlook - The total order book stands at USD 20 billion, with a duration of 4.6 years, indicating strong demand and longer delivery times accepted by shipowners [1]. - The CEO mentioned that the company would maintain flexibility for high-margin orders despite not revising the new order guidance [2]. Margin Stability - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is expected to maintain elevated GPM levels, supported by a strong order backlog and competitive bidding for shipbuilding slots [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Xylem Inc with a Buy rating and a price target of $165, indicating a favorable outlook for the company [1][5][9]. Core Viewpoints - Xylem Inc is positioned as the leading pure-play water company, expected to achieve a mid-single-digit (MSD+) growth profile, which is less cyclical compared to peers. The company has a margin expansion opportunity of approximately 100 basis points per year [1][5][9]. - The growth outlook is supported by several secular trends, including aging water infrastructure, government funding for upgrades, stricter regulations on water quality, and global urbanization [3][5][25]. - The company generated approximately $7.4 billion in sales for FY23, with a diverse product suite that includes water flow, test and measurement, and treatment/filtration equipment [7][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - Xylem is expected to benefit from substantial demand for replacement and new equipment due to aging infrastructure in developed economies, supported by government funding and regulations addressing water contamination [3][5][25]. - The company is projected to achieve a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 6% through 2028, which is above the market's expectations [3][5][27]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xylem are as follows: $8.6 billion in 2024, $9.0 billion in 2025, and $9.6 billion in 2026, with net earnings expected to reach $1.0 billion in 2024 and $1.2 billion in 2025 [1][12]. - The report anticipates an EBITDA margin improvement from 16% in 2024 to 20% by 2028, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and strategic pricing actions [4][12]. Market Drivers - Key market drivers include the estimated $625 billion funding need for national drinking water infrastructure over the next 20 years, with over $50 billion allocated by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for improvements [6][26]. - Urbanization trends indicate that approximately 68% of the global population will live in urban areas by 2050, increasing the demand for water infrastructure and treatment solutions [6][26]. Competitive Positioning - Xylem's balance sheet is strong, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.7x, positioning the company favorably against its peers [5][11]. - The company is currently trading at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting its higher growth potential and lower cyclicality [14][18].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Americas Insurance US Insurance Wrapping up 2Q24 Earnings Season Brokers and Personal Lines Reverse Last Week's Gains P&C insurers we cover were down 0.8% over the week, underperforming both Fins (+0.8%) and the S&P 500 (~flat). Brokers were down 1.9% with RYAN (-5%) and GSHD (-4.9%). Personal lines were also down with KMPR (-5.3%) and ALL (-3.3%). Commercial lines we cover were flat on average with WRB (+3.5%) and AIZ (+2.4%) offset by JRVR (-6.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China Consumer Staples Sector, but it discusses growth potential and market dynamics, indicating a generally positive outlook for certain companies within the sector [1]. Core Insights - The frozen food industry in China is experiencing growth primarily due to increased average selling prices (ASPs) from product upgrades, while volume growth remains soft. Pre-prepared dishes are identified as a new growth driver [1]. - Cooking ingredient categories, particularly pre-prepared and semi-finished dishes, are replacing traditional ingredients, with notable sales growth in hotpot meatball products driven by ASP increases [1]. - The pricing strategy in the industry is shifting, with leading brands reducing prices to gain market share amid lower raw material costs, while still focusing on ASP growth through product innovation [1]. - In the 2B segment, larger enterprises are moving towards outsourcing and OEM partnerships with frozen food companies due to better scale advantages, while smaller enterprises are also shifting to semi-finished products for cost savings [1]. - Household consumption of pre-prepared and semi-finished dishes is growing rapidly in the 2C segment, although its overall sales contribution remains low compared to the 2B segment [1]. - Distributors' margins have decreased by 1-2% year-on-year due to increased competition, with channel profit margins around 13-15% for leading brands' mainstream products [1]. - Anjoy is highlighted as a company with significant market potential due to its "big-item" strategy, branding advantages, and successful promotions [1].