Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 和讯·2025-02-26 08:25Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution on various asset classes, highlighting the expected benefits for gold, oil, and domestic Chinese assets. Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged over 50% from around $1,900/oz to nearly $3,000/oz since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by increased geopolitical risks and market demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][4] - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a net buy of 1,044.63 tons in 2024, marking three consecutive years of over 1,000 tons of net purchases [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the evolving role of gold as a hedge against inflation and a substitute currency are expected to sustain its upward trajectory, even if the conflict ends [3][4] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is projected to face oversupply in 2025, particularly with Iraq's resumption of oil exports, which could lead to lower prices for crude oil and refined products [5] - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict concludes, the restoration of Russian energy exports may further increase global supply, potentially driving down international oil and gas prices [5] - However, geopolitical complexities, such as Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT payment system, may still pose challenges for its oil exports to Europe, which could influence pricing dynamics positively [5] Group 3: Domestic Chinese Assets - The Chinese stock market is gaining attention from global investors, with Morgan Stanley upgrading its rating on the MSCI China index to "market weight" and raising target levels for major indices [7][8] - The potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could reduce uncertainties in international markets, positively impacting the overall asset market in China [8] - A decrease in energy import costs due to the end of the conflict may lower operational costs in sectors like manufacturing and transportation, enhancing China's competitive edge in high-end manufacturing and digital economy [8]