Nvidia(US:NVDA) 硬AI·2025-02-27 14:19Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Nvidia's future despite recent challenges, indicating that the strong demand for Blackwell architecture chips will continue and that the current pressure on gross margins is temporary [2][4][5]. Group 1: Transition Period and Demand - Nvidia is currently in a product transition phase, with the previous Hopper architecture still dominating revenue, while the new Blackwell architecture faces unprecedented complexities. Despite this, Nvidia achieved an 18% quarter-over-quarter growth, exceeding expectations by $2 billion, which is unprecedented in the semiconductor industry [7]. - The demand for Blackwell chips is expected to remain strong through the end of the year, supported by statements from major tech companies and key technology experts [8]. Group 2: Gross Margin Concerns - The pressure on gross margins is seen as temporary, primarily due to additional costs associated with the accelerated rollout of Blackwell chips, such as shorter testing processes and higher wafer costs [10]. - Nvidia's management is confident that gross margins will recover to 75%, with expectations for margins in the second quarter of 2025 to be similar to the first quarter, gradually improving in the second half of the year [11]. Group 3: AI Spending Cycle - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue forecast for Nvidia, projecting $196.746 billion for fiscal year 2026 and increasing the growth rate for fiscal year 2027 from 14.6% to 17% [13]. - The firm believes that AI spending is cyclical rather than a bubble, with market enthusiasm expected to reignite in the next 6-9 months, despite current cooling sentiments [14][15].