Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-02-28 10:47Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's policies on market dynamics, highlighting concerns over growth stagnation and increased trade uncertainty, which have led to a decline in momentum trading and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.3% in 2025, underperforming European and Canadian benchmarks, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a monthly drop of 3% [3]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.59% on a recent Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.78% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45%, resulting in a collective market cap loss of nearly $550 billion for major tech stocks [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology, communication, and discretionary consumer sectors are expected to lead the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, but are projected to be at the bottom in 2025 due to stock sell-offs [2]. - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples are anticipated to outperform in 2025 as investors shift towards safer investments [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish, with expectations of stock price declines rising over 20 percentage points to nearly 61% in a recent week [5]. - Retail investors have begun to exit momentum-driven speculative trading, with a significant sell-off of $1.1 billion in stocks occurring in just the first two hours of trading on a recent Monday, marking the largest outflow since March 2020 [5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index has breached critical mid-term CTA liquidation trigger levels, potentially leading to sell-offs of at least $12.6 billion and $58 billion in the coming weeks [6]. - Major stock indices have also broken through key technical support levels, indicating increased market volatility and potential further declines [6].