戴康：牛市二阶段，事缓则圆——港股天亮了系列之二十

Core Insights - The article discusses the current bullish phase of the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting its potential to lead global markets and positively influence A-shares. It emphasizes the importance of upcoming policy announcements and economic fundamentals in shaping market performance [2][3]. Market Trends - Since mid-January, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced a near seven-week rally, driven by the shifting narrative in US-China technology relations and a more stable global geopolitical environment. The rally is characterized by a global capital reallocation towards emerging markets, particularly China, and a high concentration of gains in leading technology stocks [2][3]. - Historical data shows that after a series of consecutive weekly gains, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) typically enters a strong earnings growth cycle, as seen in previous instances following similar patterns [2][3][24]. Valuation and Performance - The current forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of the HSI is above its historical average since 2010, indicating a potential overvaluation compared to A-shares. The expected equity risk premium (ERP) for the HSI is below the historical mean, suggesting caution in chasing high-flying stocks after a prolonged rally [3][28]. - The article suggests focusing on underperforming sectors with low volatility, dividends, and value characteristics, such as banking, utilities, and telecommunications, rather than chasing leading sectors after significant price increases [3][29]. Long-term Outlook - The article outlines three potential long-term scenarios for the Chinese stock market: a comprehensive bull market driven by AI technology and domestic economic recovery, a structural bull market with intermittent challenges, and a downturn if the AI narrative fails to materialize alongside economic setbacks [3][30]. Global Asset Allocation Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for global asset allocation, balancing between stable assets like bonds and equities, and high-yield, high-volatility assets, particularly in the AI sector and related infrastructure in both the US and China [4].