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英伟达,一切都结束了吗?
NvidiaNvidia(US:NVDA) 华尔街见闻·2025-03-06 11:11

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced significant challenges in 2023, including growth concerns, supply chain issues, and regulatory risks, leading to a nearly 15% decline in stock price, which is much greater than the 1% drop in the semiconductor sector and the S&P 500 index. However, Bernstein analysts suggest that this may not be the end for Nvidia, as the Blackwell product cycle is accelerating and current valuations are becoming increasingly attractive [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - Nvidia's current valuation has dropped to a low point, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 25, marking the lowest level in the past year and nearing a 10-year low. The trading price relative to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is below parity, a rare occurrence in the past decade, and the premium over the S&P 500 index is minimal, the lowest since 2016 [2]. Product and Demand Insights - Despite initial challenges with the Blackwell launch, issues have been resolved, with Nvidia reporting $11 billion in Blackwell revenue for Q4, indicating that supply chain bottlenecks have been alleviated. Demand is expected to continue exceeding supply in the coming quarters, with customer capital expenditures on the rise. Additionally, the DeepSeek technology is not seen as a threat to AI demand but may actually accelerate growth [3]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Bernstein believes that concerns about the "AI trade being over" are premature. Nvidia's current valuation is becoming more attractive as market sentiment shifts to caution, yet corporate spending willingness is on the rise, and the product cycle is just beginning. The upcoming GTC conference is also anticipated to be a significant event [4]. Historical Performance - Historically, when Nvidia's P/E ratio falls to 25 or below, investors have typically seen substantial returns, with an average next-year return rate of 150% and relatively limited downside risk [5].