Apple(US:AAPL) 美股研究社·2025-03-11 11:24Core Viewpoint - Citi has lowered its iPhone sales forecast for Apple due to the delay of a significant Siri upgrade originally scheduled for April, impacting the expected growth rate of iPhone shipments for 2025 and 2026 [2]. Group 1: iPhone Sales Forecast - Citi projects iPhone shipments to reach 232 million units in 2025 and 244 million units in 2026, down from a previously expected annual growth rate of 5% [2]. - The delay of the Siri upgrade is seen as a setback, as it was anticipated to drive higher upgrade rates this year [2]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates - Analysts at Citi have slightly reduced their earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Apple for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 1% [2]. - Despite the EPS downgrade, the target price for Apple stock remains unchanged at $275 [2]. Group 3: AI Initiatives and Service Performance - Apple is making positive strides in its AI projects in China, collaborating with Alibaba and Baidu, and plans to enhance support for Simplified Chinese in April [3]. - The performance of Apple's services business is in line with expectations, with App Store sales in January and February showing a 13% year-over-year increase [3]. Group 4: Macro Risks - Tariffs pose a potential risk, with Citi estimating that failure to obtain exemptions could reduce Apple's overall gross margin by 1.7%, given that 90% of its production is in China and 40% of sales come from the U.S. [4]. - Regulatory risks persist, particularly concerning Google's antitrust lawsuit, which could impact Apple's high-margin service revenue from agreements with Google [4]. Group 5: Defensive Characteristics - Citi views Apple stock as having defensive characteristics, suggesting that a rotation out of AI-related large caps could provide relative support for Apple as it navigates short-term challenges [4].