以后不会再有9.9元咖啡了

Core Viewpoint - The international coffee market is experiencing a significant price surge, with coffee bean prices increasing dramatically, surpassing even gold in percentage growth, leading to concerns about the affordability of coffee for consumers [2][6][8]. Price Surge in Coffee Beans - In 2024, coffee bean prices have risen sharply, with the price of Arabica coffee futures reaching $3.0995 per pound, marking a 70% increase for the year [6][8]. - The C-type coffee futures saw a nearly 90% increase, reaching a high of 429.95 cents per pound, the highest since 1972 [6][8]. Factors Influencing Coffee Prices - The primary driver of the price increase is extreme weather conditions affecting major coffee-producing regions, particularly droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, leading to a significant drop in coffee production [8][9]. - The International Coffee Organization predicts a supply gap of 8.5 million bags for 2025-2026 due to these production challenges, while global coffee market demand continues to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [8][9]. Impact on Coffee Retail Prices - Coffee retail prices are rising, with examples from various brands showing significant price increases for popular coffee drinks [10][12]. - In China, the price of popular coffee drinks has been particularly sensitive, with many consumers accustomed to a price point around 9.9 yuan [10][12]. Cost Structure of Coffee - Despite the rising cost of coffee beans, they constitute a small portion of the overall cost of coffee drinks, with rent and labor being more significant factors [12][19]. - For instance, the cost of coffee beans accounts for less than 4% of the total cost of a cup of coffee at Luckin Coffee, while rent and labor costs are much higher [12][19]. Competitive Landscape - The coffee market is facing intense competition, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks adjusting their pricing strategies in response to rising costs and competitive pressures [20][21]. - The number of new coffee shop openings has decreased significantly, indicating a challenging environment for coffee retailers [20].