TSMC(US:TSM) 半导体行业观察·2025-03-11 00:53Core Viewpoint - The global wafer foundry industry is experiencing a polarized development in Q4 2024, with advanced processes benefiting from the growth of emerging applications like AI servers and new flagship smartphones, leading to a nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase for the top ten foundries, reaching a record high of $38.48 billion [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The advanced process segment is seeing growth due to demand from AI servers and new smartphone platforms, which is offsetting the decline in demand for mature processes [1]. - The new tariff policies from the U.S. government are beginning to impact the wafer foundry industry, with increased orders for TVs and PCs expected to continue into Q1 2025 [1]. - China's subsidy policy for upgrading appliances has led to increased inventory replenishment, further boosting demand for advanced chips from TSMC [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC's revenue in Q4 2024 is projected to grow to $26.85 billion, maintaining a market share of 67% [2]. - Samsung Foundry's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1.4% to $3.26 billion due to client transitions [2]. - SMIC's revenue is forecasted to increase by 1.7% to $2.2 billion, benefiting from new 12-inch capacity and improved product mix [2]. - UMC's revenue is expected to decrease marginally by 0.3% to $1.87 billion, while GlobalFoundries is projected to grow by 5.2% to $1.83 billion [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - HuaHong Group's revenue is anticipated to increase by 6.1% to $1.04 billion, driven by improved capacity utilization [3]. - Tower's revenue is expected to grow by 4.5% to $387 million, while VIS is projected to see a 2.3% decline to $357 million due to weakened consumer demand [3]. - Nexchip's revenue is expected to increase by 3.7% to $344 million, marking a rise in market ranking [3]. - PSMC's revenue is expected to decline, resulting in a drop in market ranking, although it remains slightly above Nexchip for the year [3].