Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2025-03-12 09:47Core Viewpoint - Tesla is experiencing a significant decline in stock price, with a drop of approximately 36% over the past two months, indicating a disconnection between its market valuation and actual financial performance [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - Tesla's P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) stands at 108.86, which is 647.94% higher than the sector median of 14.56, suggesting an overvaluation [2]. - The PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) ratio of 6.28 is nearly five times the industry median of 1.34, indicating a mismatch between growth prospects and market valuation [3]. - Tesla's EV/EBITDA (TTM) is 63.35, significantly higher than the industry average, further highlighting its inflated valuation [2][5]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - Tesla's total revenue is projected to increase from $96.7 billion in 2023 to $97.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of less than 1% [3][4]. - In contrast, the broader non-essential consumer goods sector reported a revenue growth of approximately 2.82% over the past year [4]. - Tesla's EBITDA has decreased by 3.9%, while the industry saw a growth of 2.6%, indicating underperformance [4]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Tesla's market share in the U.S. electric vehicle market has dropped from 74.8% to approximately 44.4% over three years, with competitors like Ford and GM gaining ground [7][8]. - In China, Tesla's sales are at a 19-month low, while BYD's sales have surged by 161%, showcasing increasing competition [8][11]. - In Europe, Tesla's market share has plummeted from 18.2% to just 6% between 2023 and early 2025, indicating a significant decline in its competitive position [9]. Profitability Trends - Tesla's gross margin has decreased from 25.28% in 2022 to 17.86% in 2024, marking the lowest annual profit margin in five years [6]. - Operating margin has similarly declined from 16.8% in 2022 to 7.8% in 2024, raising concerns about the company's profitability [6]. Customer Loyalty and Brand Perception - Customer loyalty has declined, with repeat purchase rates dropping from 72% in Q4 2023 to 65% in Q4 2024, particularly in Democratic-leaning states [10]. - A survey indicated that the percentage of potential buyers who would not consider purchasing a Tesla has increased from 17% in 2021 to 32% by the end of 2024 [10]. Future Opportunities and Challenges - Tesla is exploring entry into the Indian market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.44% over the next five years, representing a significant opportunity [11]. - However, the Indian market is highly competitive, with Tata Motors holding over 60% market share, posing challenges for Tesla's expansion [11].