【广发宏观王丹】提振消费专项行动：政策线索下的十个想象空间

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of various government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the economy, particularly through wage adjustments, infrastructure projects, and support for families and small businesses. Group 1: Wage and Employment Policies - The existing minimum wage adjustment mechanism will be improved, with a goal for all provinces to adjust their minimum wage standards by 2025, potentially leading to a faster annual compound growth rate [1][10][11] - In 2024, the "work for relief" policy is expected to absorb 3.32 million jobs and distribute labor remuneration of 47.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 31% and 32% respectively [2][12] Group 2: Housing and Financial Policies - There is a plan to lower housing provident fund loan rates and expand its usage, which is seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market and consumer spending [3][13] - The government aims to expedite the payment of debts owed to small and micro enterprises, which is vital for improving cash flow and ultimately boosting consumer spending [4][14] Group 3: Family and Childcare Support - The establishment of a childcare subsidy system is being actively pursued, with potential impacts on consumer spending estimated to increase by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [5][15] - Policies encouraging local exploration of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools are expected to enhance family travel and consumption, potentially generating an additional 30.7 to 76.7 billion yuan in tourism revenue [6][16] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The shift from purchase management to usage management in the automotive sector is anticipated to alleviate supply constraints and stimulate retail sales [7][17] - The implementation of pediatric service initiatives and support for elderly care services is expected to address key demographic challenges and enhance consumer spending capacity [8][18] Group 5: Infrastructure and Urban Development - The promotion of elevator installations in multi-story buildings is part of a broader urban renewal strategy, which will benefit elderly and mobility-impaired populations [9][19] - The use of fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts is aimed at integrating consumer promotion with social welfare, enhancing consumer confidence and spending [10][20]