GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 郭磊宏观茶座·2025-03-18 13:22Industrial Sector - The operating rates of various industrial sectors are generally higher than the same period last year, with national high furnace operating rates increasing by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year as of the second week of March [1][6] - The operating rate of benzene-styrene increased by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of PVC saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [1][6] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires grew by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA weaving machine load rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points [1][6] Construction Sector - The funding availability rate for construction projects continues to improve, reaching 57.2% as of March 11, up 0.75 percentage points from the end of February [2][7] - Cement dispatch rates recorded 33.7%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points, while asphalt operating rates fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Transportation Sector - Subway passenger volumes in major cities averaged 61.99 million trips from March 1 to March 17, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8] - Domestic flight execution rates averaged 12,063 flights per day, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while international flights saw a significant increase of 20.1% [2][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows positive transaction conditions, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities increasing by 11.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases of 47.1%, 56.3%, and 65.1%, respectively [2][10] Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger cars in early March showed a year-on-year growth of 14%, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 1% in January and February [2][11] - Wholesale sales increased by 26% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales surged by 44% [2][12] Home Appliances - Offline sales of home appliances maintain relatively high growth rates, with air conditioning and washing machine sales showing mixed results [2][12][13] - The ongoing policy support for replacing old appliances is expected to sustain growth momentum in the home appliance sector [2][12] Container Shipping - Container throughput remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% from March 2 to March 16 [2][13] - Port cargo throughput also showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating stable export conditions [2][13] Price Trends - Food prices are in line with seasonal trends, while industrial product prices remain relatively stable, with the BPI index at 905 points as of March 18 [2][14] - The national average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices saw a decline of 2.0% [2][15]