美联储3月议息前瞻：政策路径陷“特朗普迷雾”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex situation faced by the Federal Reserve as it navigates inflation trends and the impact of political factors, particularly the potential reintroduction of tariffs by the Trump administration, which complicates monetary policy decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second consecutive time, with a "policy silence" likely to continue until summer [1]. - The recent economic data shows a mixed picture: while the labor market remains strong with 303,000 new jobs added in March and wage growth stable at 4.1%, consumer confidence has dropped to a six-month low, and retail sales growth has slowed [5]. - The Fed's latest GDPNow model has raised the first-quarter economic growth forecast from 2.5% to 3.1%, alleviating some concerns about a hard landing [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The recent CPI data showed a temporary easing, but rising energy prices and persistent service inflation keep the Fed cautious, leading to a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts from two to one for the year [2]. - The interest rate futures market has shifted expectations for the first rate cut from June to September, with the anticipated total cut for the year narrowing to 40 basis points [6]. Group 3: Political Influences on Monetary Policy - The potential reintroduction of tariffs by the Trump administration poses a dilemma for the Fed, as increased import costs could reignite inflation, while escalating trade tensions might necessitate earlier rate cuts to support the job market [3]. - Analysts expect the upcoming Fed meeting to be a critical communication window, with possible changes in policy statements reflecting a need for more evidence to confirm inflation targets [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of adjusting to the Fed's cautious stance, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.3% and the dollar index hovering around the critical level of 104 [6]. - Morgan Stanley notes that while recent economic data indicates a slowdown, short-term fluctuations are insufficient to alter the Fed's policy direction, suggesting a continued data-driven approach in the face of uncertainty [8].