Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2025-03-21 10:48Core Viewpoint - Tesla is a highly controversial and closely watched stock, with its valuation significantly detached from traditional automotive manufacturers and many high-growth tech stocks, despite its impressive growth over the past decade [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total automotive revenues increased from $27,236 million in 2020 to $82,419 million in 2023, but are projected to decline by 6% to $77,070 million in 2024 [3]. - Energy generation and storage revenue grew significantly, from $1,994 million in 2020 to $6,035 million in 2023, with a projected increase to $10,086 million in 2024, reflecting a 67% growth [3]. - Total revenues rose from $31,536 million in 2020 to $96,773 million in 2023, with a modest projected increase to $97,690 million in 2024 [3]. - The company's gross profit peaked at $20,853 million in 2022 but fell to $17,660 million in 2023, with a further decline expected to $17,450 million in 2024 [3]. - Net income attributable to common stockholders (GAAP) reached $14,997 million in 2023 but is projected to drop by 53% to $7,091 million in 2024 [3]. Valuation Metrics - Tesla's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 117, compared to Toyota's P/E of 8, indicating a significant valuation premium [6][7]. - The company's enterprise value (EV) to sales ratio is 7.61, while traditional automakers typically have EV/sales ratios below 1 [7]. - Tesla's EBITDA multiple is 57, while traditional manufacturers have EBITDA multiples in single digits [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Tesla's stock price is primarily driven by speculative market sentiment rather than financial performance, leading to high volatility [4][5]. - The stock experienced a 100% increase within three months, highlighting its speculative nature [5]. - Recent price fluctuations have been influenced by political narratives and investor sentiment rather than fundamental performance [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla's market share remains in the single digits in several major markets, despite its high valuation of approximately $800 billion, which is more than three times that of Toyota [5]. - The company faces increasing competition from traditional automakers like BYD and Toyota, which are expanding their electric vehicle market share [21]. Profitability and Margin Concerns - Tesla's gross margin has declined to 16.3%, with operating margins dropping to 6.2%, raising concerns about its pricing power and profitability [10][12]. - Despite impressive revenue growth, the company's gross profit growth has lagged, indicating a lack of pricing power in a competitive market [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns that Tesla's high valuation is not justified given its current financial performance and market conditions, suggesting potential downside risks [21][24]. - The company's efforts to diversify into AI, energy storage, and software have not yet translated into significant revenue contributions, leaving its core automotive business vulnerable [14][18].