名创优品：盈利能力再上台阶，IP 零售真是 “印钞机”？

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's Q4 2024 performance shows mixed results, with overseas business growth driving profitability to a historical high despite slight revenue miss [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In Q4 2024, Miniso achieved revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, slightly missing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.81 billion yuan [1][9]. - Overseas revenue grew by 42.7%, with direct and agency markets increasing by 65.5% and 17.4% respectively, leading to overseas revenue accounting for 45% of total revenue, up from 39% in the same period last year [1][9]. - Domestic revenue reached 2.58 billion yuan, showing a recovery in growth compared to Q3, with Miniso brand growing by 10% and TOPTOY maintaining a high growth rate of 42.7% [1][9]. Group 2: Store Expansion - In Q4 2024, Miniso added a net total of 360 stores, reaching 7,780 stores, with overseas and domestic net additions of 182 and 178 stores respectively [2][10]. - The overseas direct store count increased significantly, with the proportion rising to 16.1%, marking a continuous increase since Q1 2023 [2][11]. - The company focused on expanding in third-tier and lower cities, aligning with its strategy of "opening large stores, closing small stores, and optimizing store quality" [2][11]. Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Miniso's gross margin reached a historical high of 47% in Q4 2024, driven by the ongoing IP retail strategy and an increase in high-margin IP products [3][12]. - Despite increased marketing expenses during the overseas Christmas season, the overall expense ratio remained stable, with a slight decrease in sales expense ratio by 0.8 percentage points [3][12]. - Adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 16.8% [3][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Concerns - The company aims for overseas revenue to quadruple over the next five years, targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%-40% [9]. - Concerns exist regarding the cash flow impact of Miniso's acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket, which involved a cash outlay of 6.27 billion yuan, potentially affecting Miniso's expansion plans [4][5]. - The acquisition may dilute Miniso's return on equity (ROE) due to Yonghui's ongoing losses, with estimates suggesting a potential impact of around 400 million yuan on Miniso's net profit [5][6].