Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-03-27 11:55Core Viewpoint - The recent 2025 GPU Technology Conference (GTC) was seen as a bullish catalyst for Nvidia, but the market reaction was lukewarm despite exciting technological developments and partnerships announced by the semiconductor giant [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Revenue Projections - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the top four cloud hyperscalers have ordered 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs, valued at $140 billion, with overall demand expected to be even higher [5]. - If the demand for Blackwell GPUs is as strong as management suggests, Nvidia's expected revenue for 2025 could significantly exceed the forecast of $204.39 billion [5]. - The company is modeling a normalized compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for sales growth post-2025, driven by a projected $1 trillion total addressable market (TAM) for data centers by 2028 [5]. Group 2: Profit Margins and Financial Metrics - Nvidia's gross margin fell to just above 70% in the last quarter, with expectations of continued decline into the first half of 2025, but management is confident of a rebound to mid-70% levels in the second half of 2025 [6]. - Analysts are closely monitoring this margin trend, while the company maintains a free cash flow (FCF) margin assumption of 40% [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Stock Performance - Despite aggressive revenue forecasts for 2025, the fair value estimate for Nvidia is $94.71 per share, indicating a potential decline of about 21% from current levels [8]. - The long-term risk/reward profile for Nvidia has improved significantly due to a recent 10% drop in stock price, but the valuation still does not meet the 15% investment hurdle rate [8]. - The projected stock price in 2030, based on a 25x P/FCF exit multiple, is approximately $200.56 per share, suggesting a 5.75-year CAGR of about 9.35% [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - A "death cross" has been observed, indicating bearish momentum as the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, suggesting weakening technical momentum [9]. - The stock has been consolidating for over a year, and recent technical indicators suggest a potential drop back to the $100 range or even lower if momentum does not recover [11]. - Despite strong short-term business prospects presented at GTC, Nvidia's stock has failed to gain bullish momentum, and the technical "death cross" signals further weakening [11].