一声惊雷！算力泡沫论再起

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI technology has led to a global surge in the construction of AI computing power centers, with significant investments from both China and the US, raising concerns about potential bubbles in the market [1][2]. Group 1: US Market Dynamics - The US market is showing signs of potential oversupply in AI computing power, with major companies like Microsoft and Meta announcing substantial investments in data centers, but facing warnings from analysts about a possible adjustment period [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its sales forecast for rack-level AI servers, reducing expected shipments for 2025 and 2026 significantly [4]. - Concerns about overlapping investments in AI data centers have been raised by industry leaders, indicating a cautious approach to future projects [5]. Group 2: China's Computing Power Landscape - China's computing power capacity is on the rise, with a total scale of 246 EFLOPS expected by September 2024, ranking second globally, and a growth rate exceeding 70% in intelligent computing power [7]. - Despite the overall increase in computing power, there are structural shortages in intelligent computing resources, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation [7][8]. - Recommendations for improvement include enhancing coordination through national planning, accelerating self-research in high-end chips and software, and promoting green computing initiatives [8]. Group 3: Industry Adjustments - The data center industry in China is experiencing a decline in profit margins among third-party IDC service providers due to increased competition and changing business structures [11]. - Major IDC companies like GDS and DataPort are showing slower revenue growth despite ongoing construction efforts, indicating a cooling off from previous peaks [12][13]. - The current adjustment phase in the computing power sector reflects both necessary investments for the digital economy and some irrational exuberance, similar to the post-dot-com bubble era [13].