一体两翼，蒙牛的逆周期增长极

Core Viewpoint - The true cycle of the dairy industry lies not in the supply-demand curve but in the evolving taste and health demands of consumers [1][40]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 88.675 billion yuan and an operating profit of 7.26 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 105 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 97.83% [2]. - Despite the significant drop in net profit, the company's stock price rose over 7% the following day, indicating market confidence [3][4]. - The profit decline was primarily due to non-cash impairments related to the Australian brand Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, but core net profit remained stable, and operating profit margin improved to 8.2% [4]. Industry Challenges - The domestic dairy industry is facing dual pressures of oversupply and weak demand, with raw milk prices down 15% year-on-year and over 80% of dairy farmers experiencing losses [6]. - The industry is grappling with three main issues: insufficient product diversification, imbalances in supply and demand, and low resilience in the industry chain [6][8]. - The market share is heavily concentrated in liquid milk (44%) and milk powder (32.5%), leading to seasonal oversupply and significant purchasing and sales discrepancies [8][10]. Strategic Response - The company has adopted a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy to seek new growth, focusing on strengthening its core business while exploring new avenues [14][26]. - The "One Body" aspect includes six core businesses: ambient, chilled, fresh milk, cheese, ice cream, and milk powder, with a commitment to enhancing their value [15][16]. - The "Two Wings" refer to the "Nutrition and Health Platform" and the "Overseas Platform," aimed at deep processing of dairy products and expanding into international markets [19][20][23]. Market Positioning - The company holds the top market share in high-end fresh milk, basic fresh milk, and cheese, with significant advancements in production efficiency through a fully intelligent factory in Ningxia [17][21]. - The focus on deep processing and innovation in product offerings aims to meet diverse consumer health needs, transitioning the industry from a reliance on raw milk to a technology-driven model [22][39]. Consumer-Centric Approach - The company emphasizes making dairy products accessible and affordable, aiming to increase per capita dairy consumption in China, which is currently below global averages [33]. - Innovations in product offerings, such as the introduction of specialized nutrition products for different consumer segments, are part of the strategy to meet varied health demands [37][38]. - The overarching goal is to align with consumer preferences for quality and value, ensuring that the company remains competitive in a challenging market environment [39][41].