特斯拉的麻烦不只是马斯克

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's brand value is rapidly declining, with significant stock price drops and negative sales trends, particularly in the European and Chinese markets [3][4][30]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's stock has dropped over 30% this year, making it the worst performer among the "Big Seven" tech companies in the U.S. [4] - In Europe, Tesla sold only 25,852 electric vehicles in the first two months of the year, a significant decline of 45% year-over-year [6]. - In the U.S., Tesla's new car sales decreased by 5% year-over-year in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [7]. - Tesla's total vehicle deliveries for 2024 are projected to be approximately 1.79 million, a slight decrease of 1% compared to the previous year, marking the first year-over-year decline since 2015 [9]. Group 2: Market Share and Competition - In China, Tesla's market share dropped from 8.3% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2024, while BYD's market share increased from 11.5% to 15.4% [10]. - The overall sales growth in the Chinese new energy vehicle market is significantly outpacing Tesla, with a 35.5% increase in total sales compared to Tesla's 8.8% growth [10]. - Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, which account for 90% of its sales, are facing increasing competition from local brands like BYD and new entrants like Xiaomi [14][17]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Health - Tesla's gross margin has been declining for three consecutive years, dropping from 29.3% in 2021 to 18.4% in 2024 [11]. - In contrast, BYD's automotive revenue for 2024 is projected to be 617.38 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 27.7% and a gross margin above 20% [11]. Group 4: Product Strategy and Innovation - Tesla's lack of new product excitement is a key reason for its sales stagnation, with its current models being on the market for several years without significant updates [14][16]. - To regain market share, Tesla plans to produce a low-cost version of the Model Y, expected to be priced around 200,000 yuan, which is a 20% reduction in production costs [19][20]. - The introduction of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature has not significantly boosted sales, with FSD revenue remaining at 0.8% of total vehicle sales despite price adjustments [24][29]. Group 5: Market Challenges - Tesla faces increasing competition not only from local Chinese manufacturers but also from traditional automakers in the U.S. and Europe, with its market share in the U.S. projected to drop from 55% in 2023 to about 49% in 2024 [29]. - In Europe, Tesla's sales have decreased by 45%, while competitors like Volkswagen have seen a 182% increase in electric vehicle sales [29].