苹果失去“围墙花园”，现在是时候大力卖出了！

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock price has declined over 11% this year and nearly 7% in the past month, primarily due to the weakening of its ecosystem moat, which is impacting its financial performance [1]. Group 1: Sales and Financial Performance - iPhone 16 sales have dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in the Chinese market during the second quarter [2]. - The services segment, which has been a key growth driver for Apple, is now facing serious risks due to the weakening ecosystem [3][6]. - The company's forward PE ratio has fluctuated, with a notable increase to 29.94 for 2024, indicating a high valuation despite declining fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors are innovating beyond Apple, which is lagging in the AI space and facing challenges with its new features [5]. - Analysts express concerns over Apple's ability to maintain its default search engine arrangement with Google, which is valued at approximately $20 billion annually, representing 20% of its service revenue [8][7]. Group 3: Revenue Risks - The total service revenue is around $100 billion, with the Google search deal and app store fees potentially at risk, totaling about $50 billion, which constitutes 50% of service revenue [12][13]. - The EU's requirement for Apple to allow third-party app stores could further threaten its revenue streams and ecosystem integration [10][11]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's high valuation is increasingly difficult to justify given the risks to its service revenue, with a current non-GAAP PE ratio of 30.54, significantly higher than the industry median of 22.10 [13]. - The expected price drop of approximately 27.63% is suggested if the stock were to trade at the industry median PE ratio [15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite the challenges, Apple remains a strong brand with a loyal customer base, which may help mitigate some risks [15]. - The potential for a rebound in iPhone sales exists due to a delayed upgrade cycle, but the company faces significant threats to its ecosystem that could impact future revenue growth [16][17].