Amazon(US:AMZN) 美股研究社·2025-03-31 11:04Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock price has declined significantly due to increased trade uncertainties and new tariff threats, entering a bear market, but long-term business fundamentals, especially in AWS and digital advertising, remain strong [1][2][14]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Amazon's total operating profit reached $21.2 billion, with AWS contributing 50% despite only accounting for 15% of net sales [6]. - Amazon's total operating profit for 2024 is projected to soar by 86% year-over-year, reaching a record $68.6 billion [7]. - AWS's operating profit margin is over three times that of Amazon's overall profit margin (37% vs. 11%) [6]. Growth Potential - Amazon is on a clear path to becoming a $200 billion annual revenue giant in retail and AWS, which is expected to attract new investors [2]. - If AWS maintains a growth rate of 20% annually, Amazon's total operating profit could exceed $200 billion by 2030, tripling its 2024 operating profit [9]. - The digital advertising business is rapidly growing, with a 18% increase in Q4 sales, and is expected to significantly contribute to Amazon's net sales and operating profit growth in the coming years [10][12]. Market Position - Amazon's stock is currently undervalued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5, especially compared to Shopify's 65.9, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [14]. - The company is expected to achieve a profit growth rate of 20% per share next year, despite short-term market fluctuations [14][15]. Competitive Landscape - Amazon faces competition in the cloud computing market from companies like Microsoft and Google, which could impact future growth rates in AWS and digital advertising [17]. - The vast digital data repository Amazon has accumulated from millions of customers positions it well to enhance its advertising services and drive future growth [17].