CM BANK(SH:600036) 招商银行研究·2025-03-31 12:57Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation for major asset classes indicates a preference for high allocation in USD bonds and high dividend stocks, while suggesting a neutral allocation for A-shares and gold [1] - The outlook for the USD is a strong oscillation, while the Euro, RMB, and JPY are expected to show weak oscillation [1] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Cash and pure debt products are recommended for standard allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in long-term pure debt products when the 10-year government bond yield exceeds 2.0% [2] - For fixed income, a balanced approach is suggested, including strategies like quantitative neutral and multi-asset strategies [2] - A balanced allocation of growth, dividend, and consumer funds is recommended for equity investments, with a focus on technology as a long-term theme [2] Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing "stagflation" concerns, with a mixed outlook where consumer spending is weak but investment is recovering [5][6] - The European economy is showing signs of recovery, with fiscal policies supporting growth and a potential pause in interest rate cuts by the ECB [20] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's growth forecast is negative at -1.8% due to trade deficits, but excluding trade, the outlook improves significantly [6] - Inflation concerns persist, with the CPI dropping to 2.8% and core CPI at 3.1%, indicating a potential for future rate adjustments by the Fed [11][16] European Economic Insights - Germany and the EU are increasing defense spending, which may enhance economic growth prospects, leading to a potential slowdown in rate cuts by the ECB [20] - The ECB has noted improvements in loan growth, reducing the necessity for continuous rate cuts [20] Japanese Economic Insights - Japan's wage growth is at a 33-year high, indicating a strengthening "wage-price" cycle, which may open up room for future interest rate hikes [25] - The Bank of Japan maintains a cautious stance, with market expectations for rate hikes increasing in the second half of the year [25] Commodity Market Insights - Gold is showing signs of overheating, with valuations nearing historical highs, suggesting caution for investors [50][55] - Oil prices are expected to stabilize, with Brent crude potentially rising above $85 per barrel due to supply constraints and macroeconomic stability [56] Chinese Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of recovery, with domestic demand improving and industrial production growth outpacing expectations [59][63] - The fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with significant increases in government bond issuance to support economic growth [73][74]