TSMC(US:TSM) 美股研究社·2025-04-01 12:09Core Viewpoint - TSMC is positioned at the center of the AI supercycle, leveraging its advanced 3nm and 5nm chip manufacturing capabilities to drive significant revenue growth and maintain strong pricing power [1][14]. Revenue Growth and Structure - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to its advanced manufacturing technologies at nodes like 2nm, 3nm, and 5nm, with 3nm revenue contributing 26% of total wafer revenue in Q4 FY2024, up from 20% in Q3 FY2024 and 15% in Q4 FY2023 [1][3]. - The company's total revenue for Q4 FY2024 reached NT$868.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.8%, driven by increased demand for AI accelerators, data centers, and HPC chips [3][14]. - The revenue from HPC increased from 43% in Q4 FY2023 to 53% in Q4 FY2024, while smartphone revenue decreased from 43% to 35% during the same period, indicating a shift in demand towards AI-related applications [3][13]. Technological Advancements - TSMC's roadmap includes the potential mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of FY2025, which could enhance speed by 10-15% at the same power or reduce power consumption by 25-30% at the same speed [6]. - The company expects to launch N2P and A16 nodes in FY2026, further driving demand for advanced semiconductor technologies [6]. Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC's revenue for January FY2025 was NT$293.29 billion, a 5.4% increase from December FY2024 and a 35.9% increase year-on-year, demonstrating resilience despite production disruptions from a 6.4 magnitude earthquake [6][10]. - The revenue for February FY2025 was NT$260.01 billion, reflecting an 11.3% month-on-month decline but a 43.1% year-on-year increase, indicating ongoing expansion and the growing adoption of advanced semiconductor processes [7]. Future Outlook and Challenges - TSMC forecasts over US$25.4 billion in revenue for Q1 FY2025, a 5.5% decrease from Q4 FY2024 but a 34.7% year-on-year increase, highlighting ongoing high-value contracts in advanced chip manufacturing [10]. - The company anticipates a 2% to 3% annual decline in gross margin over the next five years due to the expansion of overseas manufacturing facilities, which may dilute profitability [10][11]. - TSMC's growth increasingly relies on HPC platforms and AI-related applications, which introduces market vulnerability, as non-AI segments like smartphones show only moderate growth [13][14]. Dependency on Specific Markets - TSMC's reliance on CoWoS capacity, primarily for AI applications, raises concerns about revenue stability, especially if AI investment slows down due to market uncertainties [14].