KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 海豚投研·2025-04-02 15:56Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai's performance in Q4 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, achieving revenue of 51 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and successfully meeting the annual target set at the beginning of the year [1][14]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Kweichow Moutai reported a net profit of 25.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, indicating a faster growth rate than revenue, attributed to increased sales of Moutai liquor [2][14]. - The overall revenue for 2024 grew by 15.7%, surpassing the 15% target set at the beginning of the year, demonstrating the company's consistent performance over the past decade [1][14]. Moutai Liquor Sales - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 44.8 billion CNY in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.9%. The total sales volume for 2024 reached 46,000 tons, up 10.2% from the previous year [2][17]. - The average price per ton increased by 4.6%, primarily due to a price hike from 969 CNY to 1169 CNY starting November 2023 [2][17]. Series Liquor Performance - Series liquor revenue in Q4 2024 was 5.29 billion CNY, growing 5.2% year-on-year, but showing a slowdown compared to the 13% growth in Q3 [3][20]. - The company has focused on controlling inventory and stabilizing prices, particularly for the Moutai 1935 product, which has maintained a price of around 700 CNY [3][20]. Direct Sales Channel - The direct sales channel accounted for 45.5% of total sales in Q4 2024, slightly down from 47.2% in Q3, but still at a high level due to increased focus on non-standard products [4][22]. - The adjustment in the sales strategy between Moutai liquor and series liquor reflects the company's classic operational approach to meet performance targets [4][22]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross profit margin improved slightly from 92.6% to 93% due to a better product mix, while the sales expense ratio increased marginally from 3.1% to 3.2% as the company ramped up marketing efforts [4][28]. - Management expenses decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1%, maintaining overall net profit margin stability [4][28]. Future Outlook - For 2025, Kweichow Moutai aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% [4][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.2 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 34.67 billion CNY, with an estimated dividend yield of 3.3% [4][6]. Inventory and Contract Liabilities - As of Q4 2024, contract liabilities decreased significantly by 32% to 9.6 billion CNY, indicating a cautious approach from distributors amid declining prices [4][25]. - The inventory levels for Moutai liquor have reached a low point, suggesting a potential recovery in demand as the market stabilizes [4][25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Kweichow Moutai's strong market position allows it to navigate industry challenges effectively, leveraging price adjustments and product mix strategies to maintain growth [5][6]. - The company faces pressure to enhance series liquor sales to offset limited growth in Moutai liquor volumes, indicating a strategic shift towards competing in the mid-range and mass-market segments [5][6].