【广发资产研究】资产配置如何应对“东升西落”叙事？——债务周期下的资产配置新策略系列之四

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Deepseek" narrative on global asset allocation, emphasizing the rise of Chinese technology assets while U.S. stocks and the dollar perform poorly. It suggests a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation to navigate the changing dynamics of East rising and West declining [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Stocks - U.S. stocks are expected to shift from low volatility to high volatility, leading to a reduction in their weight in asset allocation. The S&P 500 has maintained low volatility due to low correlation among its components, driven by the divergence between tech and non-tech stocks under the AI narrative [4][15]. - By 2025, factors such as mean reversion, recession pressures, and the breaking of the current AI trend will likely increase the correlation among S&P 500 stocks, resulting in higher volatility and necessitating a decrease in U.S. stock allocation [16][15]. Group 2: Chinese Stocks - Short-term, the Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, suggesting a wait for policy implementation and validation of the tech narrative. Historical data indicates that after such streaks, it is advisable to focus on lagging sectors like banks and utilities rather than chasing leading stocks [5][20]. - Long-term, the current rally in Chinese stocks is deemed healthier compared to previous policy-driven credit pulses. The weight of Chinese tech assets in portfolios should be increased, as the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks remains historically high, indicating potential for narrowing [5][24]. Group 3: Chinese Government Bonds - Chinese government bonds have not transitioned to a bearish phase but require more attention to timing due to increased volatility. The shift from passive to active deleveraging in the private sector suggests that the downward space for bond yields will narrow [6][43]. - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.8%, pricing in a 20 basis point rate cut. A trading range of 1.6% to 1.9% is recommended for core transactions [6][44].