SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) 光大证券研究·2025-04-01 09:14Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance has declined primarily due to falling coal prices and production volumes, alongside rising costs of aluminum raw materials [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.07% [2]. - Coal production and sales volumes were 6.739 million tons and 6.7013 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 6.01% and 7.54% [3]. - The average price of coal products in 2024 was 1,019.3 yuan per ton, down 7.8% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The price of alumina, a key raw material for aluminum production, increased by 37.4% year-on-year, averaging 4,070.6 yuan per ton in 2024 [3]. - As of March 28, 2025, the price of alumina had dropped to 3,120 yuan per ton, a decline of 44.3% since the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The domestic supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with projected surpluses of 490,000 tons in 2024 and 240,000 tons in 2025, followed by a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026 [4]. - The company is likely to benefit from a lower carbon tax due to its significant use of hydropower in aluminum production, which results in lower CO2 emissions compared to coal-fired production [6][7].