Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-04-07 11:26Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has seen a significant decline of 23% over the past year, currently priced at $94 per share, raising concerns about its future performance amidst changing market dynamics and competition [3][4]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Recent reports indicate that Microsoft has slowed its data center expansion, which could negatively impact Nvidia's growth prospects [7][8]. - Microsoft's CEO expressed skepticism about the immediate financial benefits of AI, suggesting a potential slowdown in capital expenditures across the tech industry [8][9]. - Nvidia's current market capitalization of $2.5 trillion reflects expectations of sustained high sales, but any slowdown in revenue growth or profit margins could lead to significant financial losses for the company [8][9]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Analysis of major tech companies' capital expenditures from FY16 to FY24 shows a marked decline in spending, particularly in FY20 and FY23, with a potential reversal in FY24 due to AI developments [9]. - The total capital expenditures for major tech firms in FY24 are projected to be $217.267 billion, a significant increase from previous years, but this trend may not continue if stock prices and financial performance decline [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The recent downturn in large tech stocks, including Nvidia, reflects broader market trends, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 20% from recent highs [9]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to face long-term challenges is highlighted by comparisons to Intel's historical performance, where revenue recovery did not lead to a return to previous market valuations [13][15]. - The influx of retail investors into leveraged ETFs related to Nvidia may indicate market exuberance, which often precedes market corrections [22][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there are expectations for AI applications to grow exponentially, which could sustain demand for Nvidia's chips and maintain its competitive edge [23]. - However, the recent decline in Tesla's stock serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the volatility and risks associated with high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia [23].