【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】沧海横流方显英雄本色

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a defensive strategy in the short term due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, which may lead to a global recession and affect market sentiment. The focus is on the potential for a market adjustment and the importance of domestic policy responses to counteract external pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Following the implementation of Trump's tariffs, the initial market reaction showed resilience, reflecting potential changes such as tariff adjustments and domestic policy support. However, subsequent overseas market adjustments led to a more pessimistic outlook among investors [2][3]. - The article suggests that the market's first reaction was correct in direction but premature in timing, indicating that a significant mid-cycle low point may be approaching if the market accelerates its adjustments [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing A-Share Market - Three key triggers for a potential recovery in A-shares are identified: 1) visible constraints on Trump's policies may lead to continued foreign investment in A-shares, 2) support for external demand through the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic policy efforts, and 3) further breakthroughs in the technology sector [3][4]. - The article highlights that defensive thinking will dominate in the short term, favoring high-dividend stocks and assets that can hedge against market volatility, such as agricultural products and real estate [4]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The article provides a detailed analysis of sector performance, indicating that sectors like banking, public utilities, and beauty care are continuing to expand, while sectors such as electronics and communications are experiencing contraction [7]. - The overall risk appetite in the market is declining, which may hinder the expansion of technology themes. However, the AI computing industry is expected to stabilize in revenue, with a focus on key catalysts for a new round of market activity [4][6].