GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 戴康的策略世界·2025-04-09 06:07Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in light of intensified US-China trade tensions and their impact on market dynamics. It suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio strategy to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of short-term exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a need for caution and a focus on low volatility, dividend, value, and quality factors [2]. - The recent surge in the Hang Seng Index basis, which exceeded 200 points, is a rare occurrence, having only happened 13 times since 2013. Historical data suggests that the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to corporate earnings, with PPI (Producer Price Index) being a key indicator to track [2][8]. - The article notes that the Chinese government has taken significant measures to support the capital market amid escalating trade tensions, which positively influenced market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a three-pronged approach for identifying optimal investment opportunities during periods of market volatility: (1) observing signs of easing trade tensions, (2) identifying undervalued assets, and (3) recognizing liquidity issues that may lead to temporary market dislocations [3]. - A long-term strategy is recommended, focusing on a "global barbell strategy" that balances risk and return across various asset classes, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the implications of a shifting global order [4]. - The article suggests maintaining a defensive asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of tracking US dollar liquidity as a leading indicator for market movements [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The article provides a detailed asset allocation model under the "All Weather Strategy," which includes varying proportions for different risk preferences, highlighting the importance of adjusting allocations based on market conditions [6]. - The model suggests a significant allocation to Chinese government bonds and convertible bonds, reflecting a preference for lower-risk assets in uncertain market conditions [6]. - The allocation percentages for various assets are tailored to different risk appetites, with specific adjustments made for volatility and correlation among asset classes [6].