AbbVie：突破 Humira 专利壁垒，即将迎来蓬勃发展

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie has shown resilience in its financial performance despite facing challenges from the loss of exclusivity of its blockbuster drug Humira, with strategic acquisitions and strong growth in other product lines [1][17]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AbbVie’s stock price increased by 16% since November 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 index which returned 9.41% [1]. - Humira's revenue peaked at $21 billion in 2022 but is projected to decline by approximately 38% in 2024 to $8.993 billion due to the entry of biosimilars [2]. - The total revenue for AbbVie in Q4 was $15.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [6]. Group 2: Product Performance - AbbVie’s immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have compensated for Humira's losses, with Skyrizi's revenue expected to reach $11.718 billion in 2024, a 50.9% increase, and Rinvoq's revenue projected at $5.971 billion, a 50.5% increase [4]. - The oncology segment, represented by Imbruvica, is facing competition, leading to a revenue decline of 6.9% to $3.347 billion in 2024, but Venclexta and Elahere are showing strong growth [5]. - AbbVie’s neuroscience efforts are yielding a 16.6% growth, driven by Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar [6]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen for $10 billion, enhancing its oncology portfolio with the ADC drug Elahere, approved for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer [1]. - The company also invested $8.7 billion in Cerevel Therapeutics, focusing on neuroscience products [1]. Group 4: Financial Guidance and Valuation - AbbVie adjusted its 2025 earnings guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $11.99 and $12.19, with a negative impact from acquired IPR&D expenses [7]. - The company maintains a stable operating cash flow between $18 billion and $22 billion annually, providing liquidity and leverage [8][9]. - A discounted cash flow analysis suggests AbbVie is undervalued by approximately 10% based on historical free cash flow margins [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - AbbVie forecasts that total revenue from Rinvoq and Skyrizi will exceed $31 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of about 21% [4]. - The company’s strong cash generation capabilities and strategic positioning in immunology and oncology suggest a positive outlook despite challenges [17].