台积电CoWoS，前途未卜

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and supply chain constraints on the AI supply chain, particularly focusing on TSMC's CoWoS capacity and its implications for the semiconductor industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's CoWoS Capacity and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley predicts that TSMC's CoWoS capacity allocation for 2026 will be a crucial catalyst for the global AI supply chain [1]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its CoWoS shipment forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 585,000 and 923,000 units, respectively, due to supply chain limitations and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is expected to increase significantly from 70,000-75,000 units at the end of this year to approximately 105,000-125,000 units by mid-2026 [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Impacts - The article highlights the potential long-term effects of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy and future AI capital expenditures [2]. - Despite the geopolitical challenges, demand for AI inference in China remains strong, leading to an increase in the spot prices of NVIDIA graphics cards [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a capital expenditure forecast of $40 billion for 2025 but has adjusted the 2026 forecast down from $46 billion to $45 billion due to slower CoWoS capacity expansion [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, is noted for significantly reducing AI usage costs, which could disrupt NVIDIA's dominance in the AI GPU market [3][4]. - If DeepSeek successfully challenges NVIDIA, it may lead to a broader expansion of the AI ASIC chip market, benefiting TSMC's customer base, which includes major companies like Google, Meta, and Apple [5]. - Despite the challenges posed by DeepSeek and geopolitical tensions, NVIDIA and TSMC have not yet revised their AI GPU and CoWoS demand forecasts [5][6]. Group 4: Future Capacity Projections - TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity is projected to reach 75,000-80,000 units by 2025, with further increases expected in subsequent years, reaching 150,000 units by 2029 [6]. - The breakdown of CoWoS capacity by type indicates a significant ramp-up in CoWoS-S and CoWoS-L segments, with respective targets of over 20,000 and 45,000 units by 2025 [6].