英伟达泡沫即将破灭！趁现在还能退出的时候赶紧退出

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced significant challenges recently, with its stock price dropping approximately 30% since the end of 2024, indicating that aggressive growth rates may be a thing of the past. Analysts suggest that Nvidia's stock is overvalued and recommend selling due to substantial downside potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia experienced a strong finish in 2024 with soaring revenues, but market sentiment is shifting as competitors like Deepseek demonstrate higher efficiency at lower costs, raising doubts about the necessity of Nvidia's GPUs for running models [2][3]. - Reports indicate that Microsoft has paused some data center projects, suggesting potential overcapacity in AI data centers, which could negatively impact Nvidia's performance in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major clients of Nvidia, including Amazon, OpenAI, Google, and Meta, are developing custom chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, threatening its dominance in the AI accelerator market [3][4]. - The escalation of global trade tensions poses additional challenges for Nvidia, particularly in its operations in China, where sales remain below pre-export control levels [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Valuation - Nvidia's stock was previously overvalued at $132 per share, with an intrinsic value estimated at $91.20 per share. Current economic factors suggest that intrinsic value may be even lower, indicating further downside potential [4][6]. - Updated valuation models show Nvidia's enterprise value at $1.79 trillion and equity value at $1.83 trillion, translating to an intrinsic value of $73.87 per share, suggesting Nvidia is overvalued by approximately 22% [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have adjusted sales growth expectations for fiscal year 2026 down to 50% due to the impact of trade tensions, with further adjustments likely after the first quarter earnings report [5][6]. - Despite the challenging environment, there are signals that the U.S. government may be open to trade negotiations, which could alleviate some economic pressures on Nvidia [8].