估值被严重低估，但ASML为何不再值得买入？

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock has declined approximately 14% since analysts rated it as a strong buy in early February, and while it appears undervalued, it is currently not a buy due to bearish technical indicators and weak growth expectations for the second quarter [1][14]. Technical Analysis - The downward trend for ASML began with a bearish engulfing pattern in mid-February, and the stock is currently far below its trend line, indicating a lack of support and potential for further declines [3][4]. - The 50-day moving average has remained significantly below the 200-day moving average, indicating a consistent long-term bearish momentum [5]. - Recent price action shows that ASML has fallen below all Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting that the recent rebound is failing [6]. - There are no signs of improvement in ASML's situation, with bearish indicators persisting [8]. Financial Performance - ASML reported net sales of €7.742 billion for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 46.4%, aligning with expectations, and a dollar growth of 41.77% to $8.82 billion, exceeding forecasts by $35.52 million [11]. - The company’s bookings were €3.936 billion, slightly above the previous year's €3.611 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $6.83, surpassing expectations by $0.31 [11]. - However, a concerning signal is the significant decline in operating cash flow, which, while historically normal for Q1, raises some alarm [11]. Future Guidance - ASML expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, representing a 19.3% increase from €6.243 billion in Q2 2024, but this is a significant slowdown compared to Q1's growth rate [12]. - The anticipated gross margin for Q2 is projected to be between 50% and 53%, which is consistent with the previous year's margin of 51.5% [12]. Valuation - The current price-to-sales ratio for ASML is 7.394, down from over 15 in mid-2024, indicating that the stock is undervalued despite the disappointing guidance for Q2 [14]. - The valuation reflects excessive pessimism, as the expected revenue growth remains around average levels, and the stock is trading at a premium of 193% compared to the median price-to-sales ratio in the IT sector [14][15]. - Although the stock may present a long-term investment opportunity, the combination of weak technicals and slowing growth suggests that short-term gains are unlikely [15].