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2200人大会!头部券商最新研判
SWHYSWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-06-12 02:25

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the acceleration of de-dollarization globally and the rise of China's technological strength, indicating a shift in investment focus towards markets outside the US, particularly in Germany and Hong Kong [4][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference, themed "In the Midst of Turmoil, Heroes Emerge," featured one main forum and twelve sub-forums covering key market topics such as asset allocation, AI and chips, financial innovation, and more, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The current global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a notable shift in capital flows from the US to other markets, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 20% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The trend of capital accumulation in the US since 2020 is reversing, with international investors increasingly focusing on other markets [4]. Group 3: China's Economic Outlook - China's economic growth momentum is solidifying, with foreign investment banks raising their growth forecasts for China and recommending an "overweight" position in the Chinese stock market [4]. - The proportion of new driving forces in China's economy has reached a significant scale, with high-tech industries accounting for 16.3% of industrial output [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - China is a key participant in the current technological revolution, with significant advancements in AI, quantum computing, and renewable energy, supported by increased R&D investment, projected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024 [5]. - China ranks 11th in the global innovation index, being the only middle-income economy in the top 30, reflecting its strong position in patent applications and authorizations in AI and renewable energy [5]. Group 5: Economic Transformation - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, with a focus on high-quality development and service sector expansion to absorb employment pressures during the economic transition [7]. - The service sector is identified as a critical area for job creation, with policies expected to enhance supply and stimulate demand in this sector [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The A-share market is poised for a potential bull market, with 2025 marking a peak for asset reallocation as deposit maturities increase [8]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" phase, characterized by gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher return baseline for investments [8][9]. - By 2026, the supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve, leading to a more favorable market environment [9].