AI's reasoning blind spot

AI Model Performance & Limitations - AI reasoning models, despite mimicking human reasoning, may break down when pushed beyond narrow tasks, posing a fundamental limitation [3][4] - The current reasoning models cannot generalize, requiring specific specialized models, which falls short of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [11] - Progress in AI model pre-training has stalled, raising concerns about the return on investment (ROI) [6][9] Market & Investment Risks - Wall Street is betting that smarter reasoning models will drive demand for compute and infrastructure, benefiting companies like Nvidia [5] - If AI models cannot scale or generalize, investments in AI may not lead to productivity and could become sunk costs [6] - The market may pause investments until a clear return on investment is demonstrated for AI models [10] Company Impact - The limitations of AI reasoning models could impact the entire AI trade, including Nvidia, AMD, and cloud players [8] - Breakthroughs in reasoning could redefine the Microsoft-OpenAI relationship and who controls the future of AI [7] - Reasoning is fueling Zuckerberg's recruiting drive and Jensen Huang's trillion-dollar bull case for physical AI [7]