William Blair's Jed Dorsheimer on Tesla: Technology is always deflationary

Tesla's Business Perspective - William Blair suggests that viewing Tesla solely as an auto company would lead to a bearish outlook, emphasizing the importance of considering other business segments [3] - The firm cut its core auto business numbers by approximately 12%, citing brand weakness in Europe and competition in China [4] - The energy business is performing well, and the firm has provided estimates for the robo taxi service in Austin [4] Robo Taxi Valuation and Competitive Advantage - The firm estimates the robo taxi business to be worth roughly $300 per share by 2040, based on aggressive pricing schemes and greater unit volume [7] - Tesla's tech stack is estimated to have one-tenth the cost compared to Google's Waymo, giving it a competitive advantage in pricing and market share acquisition in the autonomous vehicle rollout [7] - The firm acknowledges that these are early days and assumptions are involved, but they are attempting to establish a framework for valuation [8] Overall Valuation - The auto business is valued around $30 to $40 per share, and the energy business is valued similarly [8] - The firm arrives at a fair value in the high $300s, excluding the humanoid robot [8]